NFL Betting Preview: Week 18
The NFL Playoffs are almost here, as we have just two more days left in the 2021-2022 NFL Regular Season. This week is historic in that it is the first Week 18 we have ever gotten to enjoy. There are plenty of teams vying for playoff spots and seeding this weekend, but there are also a fair share of meaningless games on tap as well.
Week 17 was always one of the most difficult weeks to bet during the NFL season and now that distinction falls on Week 18. Teams may go with their starters in the first series, then bench them the rest of the game. That is way there are probably a handful of games that are best to stay away from altogether this weekend, but we will get to that in a minute.
Last week, I went 6-6 on my best bet picks, bringing my season record to 108-86. This is the last chance to earn some money on regular season football, before we switch gears towards the high stakes of playoff football next week. Let’s hope we all finish the season strong!
*All odds and betting lines provided by WynnBet
Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) vs. Denver Broncos (7-9)
Spread: KC (-11)
Money Line: KC (-535) DEN (+405)
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
This is one of the few games that still has stakes attached this weekend, as the Kansas City Chiefs can still clinch a playoff bye with a win today and a Titans loss on Sunday. The Denver Broncos on the other hand have nothing to play for and have lost their last two games since Teddy Bridgewater went down for the season.
Best Bet:
Take the Chiefs to cover the spread and win by more than 11.
Dallas Cowboys (11-5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)
Spread: DAL (-5)
Money Line: DAL (-220) PHI (+180)
Over/Under: 43 Points
Neither team is guaranteed to improve their playoff seeding with a win in Week 18, but that does not mean that the Cowboys and the Eagles are going to just throw in the towel this week. These are two teams who could find themselves matched up with each other in the playoffs, so they are going to try to put their best effort forward, even if some players are held to more conservative snap counts than usual.
Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy said that the Cowboys will play their starters this week, although they will be missing key players like left tackle Tyronn Smith and Pro Bowl cornerback Trevon Diggs. The Eagles meanwhile are likely to rest Jalen Hurts, as he is dealing with a high ankle sprain, yet backup QB Gardner Minshew is certainly capable to go out and win this game.
Best Bet:
If the Cowboys are playing their starters, expect a lot of points to be put up on the board. Take the over.
Tennessee Titans (11-5) vs. Houston Texans (4-12)
Spread: TEN (-10)
Money Line: TEN (-525) HOU (+400)
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
This is a tough game to predict, in that everything could change if the Chiefs loss today. Assuming they win, the Titans will need to beat the Houston Texans to clinch their first round playoff bye.
For the year, there is no question which team has been better. Not only do the Titans have seven more wins on the season, but their point-differential of +62 is far better than the Texans -169 mark. Yet interestingly enough, the last time these two teams met, the Texans actually beat the Titans by nine points.
Still, if the Titans need this game, I would expect them to win and win big.
Best Bet:
If the Titans need to win to clinch their bye, take them to cover the spread. If the bye is already clinched and they have nothing to play for, just stay away from this game.
Indianapolis Colts (9-7) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
Spread: IND (-15)
Money Line: IND (-1100) JAX (+700)
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
The Indianapolis Colts still need to win to clinch their spot in the playoffs and they should have no problem getting that victory against the Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend. Jacksonville’s playoff hopes went out the window a long time ago, but they are playing for something else, the rights to the first overall pick.
The Jaguars are in line for the first overall pick for the second year in a row, as long as they lose. If Jacksonville wins and the Detroit Lions lose, then they will no longer have that first overall pick. At the end of the day, the Colts should absolutely win this game, but are they going to take it by more than 15 points on the road?
Best Bet:
Last week, the Jaguars lost by 40 points. It’s hard to bet on them no matter what the spread is this week. Take the Colts to cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7-1) vs. Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
Spread: BAL (-4)
Money Line: PIT (+170) BAL (-210)
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
This is a very interesting game, because both of these teams are unlikely to make the playoffs, but do stand a chance if they get a win. That means they will both be going all out in this divisional battle in hopes of keeping their season’s alive.
In what was Ben Roethlisberger’s last game played at Heinz Field last week, the Steelers beat the Cleveland Browns by 12 points. Najee Harris was great in that game, rushing for 188 yards. The Ravens have the best run defense in the NFL, so that is certainly a matchup to watch in this game.
Baltimore has lost five games in a row to get to this point where they are on the verge of elimination. Playing at home, the Ravens are favored, but they have shown nothing over the past few months to be confident in their ability to cover a spread bigger than a field goal.
Best Bet:
The Ravens might win, but I really think this game could come down to a field goal either way. With that said, take the points and bet the Steelers.
Washington Football Team (6-10) vs. New York Giants (4-12)
Spread: WAS (-6.5)
Money Line: WAS (-300) NYG (+240)
Over/Under: 38.5 Points
The New York Giants are terrible. They have now lost their last five games in a row, all by double-digit margins. Washington has nothing to play for but pride, but that usually is enough when going against a division rival in the last week of the season.
Best Bet:
Take Washington to cover the spread and win by a touchdown.
Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) vs. Cleveland Browns (7-9)
Spread: CLE (-6)
Money Line: CIN (+200) CLE (-250)
Over/Under: 38 Points
The Cincinnati Bengals have absolutely nothing left to play for, which is reflected in this line that has them as six-point underdogs. Neither team will be playing their starting quarterback, as Joe Burrow rests for the playoffs and Baker Mayfield underwent season-ending surgery after last week’s loss.
Cleveland has hit the under five of their last six games, but this week that line is set at just 38 points.
Best Bet:
No one cares about this game, so why should you bet on it? Just lay off this one.
Chicago Bears (6-10) vs. Minnesota Vikings (7-9)
Spread: MIN (-5.5)
Money Line: CHI (+195) MIN (-240)
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
This is another game where two division rivals square with nothing really to play for. The Bears don’t even own their first round pick.
Last week, the Chicago Bears beat up on the Giants 29-3, giving their home crowd one last victory to celebrate for the season. Now they have to travel to Minnesota and I would expect there to be a real letdown, as guys just want the season to be over at this point.
Kirk Cousins will be playing for the Vikings and star wide receiver Justin Jefferson has a record to play for, as he is five catches shy of matching Michael Thomas’ record for the most receptions ever in a player’s first two seasons. That duo is good enough to hang some points on the Bears this Sunday.
Best Bet:
Take the Vikings to win and cover the spread.
Green Bay Packers (13-3) vs. Detroit Lions (2-13-1)
Spread: GB (-3.5)
Money Line: GB (-185) DET (+152)
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
The Green Bay Packers would be favored by far more than 3.5 points if they had something to play for on Sunday. The Packers already have everything clinched in the NFC, as they are the No. 1 seed and guaranteed a bye in the first round of the playoffs. And yet while the Packers have nothing to play for, Aaron Rodgers is still expected to start on Sunday.
Of Rodgers head coach Matt LaFleur said, “I think he’s proven that throughout the course of the season in terms of the lack of practice that he’s had and still going out there and playing at an MVP level, so I don’t think he necessarily needs to play. I think he wants to play. I think he wants to keep the momentum going.”
So Rodgers will get the start the game, but how long will they really want to have him out there risking injury?
The Detroit Lions, if nothing else, have proven that they won’t just sit this game out. They will play hard because their season has been over for months, yet they have finished this season strong.
Best Bet:
With Detroit likely to give it their best effort in front of their home crowd and the uncertainty about how hard the Packers will be playing, this is a game to stay away from entirely.
New York Jets (4-12) vs. Buffalo Bills (10-6)
Spread: BUF (-16)
Money Line: NYJ (+750) BUF (-1200)
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
The New York Jets have lost 11 games in a row against AFC East opponents, as they are one loss away from getting swept for the second year in row. New York still has a draft pick in play to lose for, but if last week was any indication, they are going to try to play hard for their coach Rob Saleh and look to finish the season strong. Last week, the Jets nearly beat Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, ultimately beating the spread when they lost by just four points.
The Buffalo Bills technically still need this game if they want to win the AFC East, but the implications of losing it are not that severe, as they have already clinched a playoff berth. Seeding can be important, but depending on how some of the other games are going on Sunday, Buffalo could very well start to pull some of their players mid-game.
Because of all that uncertainty, the wisest play is to just stay away from this game. At the same time, I really like the Jets in this game after what we saw last week, especially when you are getting 16 points.
Best Bet:
Take the Jets with the points.
San Francisco 49ers (9-7) vs. Los Angeles Rams (12-4)
Spread: LAR (-4)
Money Line: SF (+170) LAR (-210)
Over/Under: 42 Points
We have finally reached a matchup that has real palpable stakes for both sides, as these two NFC West division foe both want this game badly. For the Rams, a victory would mean another NFC West title and the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. Meanwhile the 49ers need this game to make the playoffs, where if they win, they are in.
Desperation coming from both sides should make for one of the best games this weekend. Jimmy Garropolo may suit up this weekend, despite a thumb injury, which could mean trouble for the Rams, as Jimmy G is 5-0 in his career against them. Still, the Rams are the better team and seem to be pushing for some extra momentum as they had into the playoffs. Not to mention Cooper Kupp is in line to earn NFL’s triple crown, leading the league in catches, yards and TDs.
Best Bet:
Playing at home, take the Rams to cover the four-point spread.
New England Patriots (10-6) vs. Miami Dolphins (8-8)
Spread: NE (-6.5)
Money Line: NE (-280) MIA (+225)
Over/Under: 40 Points
The New England Patriots have something to play for this week, as they can still clinch the division with a win and a Bills loss. New England can still technically earn a bye and the No. 1 seed as well, but they would need the Chiefs, Titans and Bills to lose, which is not likely to happen.
Still, New England will give it their best effort tomorrow, looking to beat the Dolphins on the road after winning by 40 points last weekend. The Dolphins have actually already beaten the Patriots this season, but it was all the way back in Week 1. For the season, the Patriots +168 point differential is far better than the Dolphins -41 mark.
Despite playing on the road, New England should win this game, but can they win it by a touchdown?
The one thing to pay attention to here is that these have been the best two defenses in the NFL over the last few months. If the Dolphins can stay away from the turnovers, this could be a low-scoring defensive battle, as the Patriots try to grind their way to one final victory of the regular season.
Best Bet:
Take the under.
Carolina Panthers (5-11) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-4)
Spread: TB (-8)
Money Line: CAR (+300) TB (-380)
Over/Under: 42 Points
The Buccaneers have not indicated that they will take Sunday’s game off, but they really don’t have anything to play for other than playoff seeding. Tampa has already won their division, clinching a spot in the playoffs. They are likely to play this one hard in the first half, but who knows how long the regulars stay on the field in what amounts to a meaningless game.
Best Bet:
Another game with no stakes that you should just stay away from.
Seattle Seahawks (6-10) vs. Arizona Cardinals (11-5)
Spread: ARI (-6.5)
Money Line: SEA (+230) ARI (-290)
Over/Under: 48 Points
The Arizona Cardinals still have a chance at winning the NFC West this week, provided the Rams lose and they win their final game of the season. The Cardinals have lost four games in a row at home, as they have been road warriors all season, posting an 8-1 record away from Arizona.
With rumors that he could be traded this offseason, this might be Russell Wilson’s last game with the Seattle Seahawks, so don’t expect them to just hand this one to Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. The first time these two teams met, the Cardinals won by 10 points, despite the fact that Murray was out and Colt McCoy started. That should tell you all you need to know about these two teams.
Best Bet:
Take the Cardinals to win by a touchdown and cover.
New Orleans Saints (8-8) vs. Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
Spread: NO (-4)
Money Line: NO (-187) ATL (+167)
Over/Under: 40 Points
The New Orleans Saints don’t have some complicated road map to make the playoffs this weekend, as their scenario is pretty simple. The Saints need to win and need the 49ers to lose and then they are in.
Considering all of the injuries New Orleans has endured this season, seeing multiple quarterbacks go down, it is a marvel how they are even in this position. All that stands in their way of a winning season is a Falcons team that is as inconsistent as they come. The Falcons narrowly beat the Saints the first time these teams met, holding on to win despite giving up 22 points in the fourth quarter of a 27-25 victory.
At the end of the day, one of these teams actually needs this game, the other is just playing for pride. The Falcons have won three of their last six games, but each loss has been by at least 13 points. If the Saints get ahead early, the Falcons could fold quickly.
Best Bet:
Take the Saints to cover and win by more than four points.
Los Angeles Chargers (9-7) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (9-7)
Spread: LAC (-3)
Money Line: LAC (-155) LV (+127)
Over/Under: 49.5 Points
The final game of the season could finish in remarkable fashion, assuming both the Chargers and Raiders have a sense of humor and play along with one of the more ridiculous playoff scenarios you can imagine. If the Colts were to lose tomorrow, then the Chargers and Raiders would both make the playoffs with a tie. That means they could have a gentleman’s agreement to just kneel out the entire 48-minute clock and they both win.
Now this would never actually happen, but it is fun to imagine a scenario where it did. More likely the Colts will win their game against the Jaguars and these two teams will essentially be playing a do-or-die playoff game to move on. The Raiders have actually won three games in a row to get to this point and have a veteran quarterback in Derek Carr going against the young gunslinger in Justin Herbert.
The Chargers have lost three of their last six games, but when they have won, they have won big. Los Angels has won by at least 19 points in each of their last three victories, included a 34-13 win over the Denver Broncos last week. With a suddenly healthy roster that features Joey Bosa, the Chargers should be favored by more than three points this weekend.
Best Bet:
According to ESPN, since 2015, the home team in the final prime-time game of the season has gone 0-5 outright and 1-4 ATS. Bet on history to repeat itself with the road Chargers covering the spread this week.