NFL Betting Preview: Week 17

Usually Week 17 would mark the end of the regular season in the NFL, but luckily this year that is not the case. For the first time, we still have a Week 18 to look forward, leaving us with this penultimate week where so many playoff scenarios are still in play. This also gives us an extra full slate of games to lay some money on, before we get to the playoffs.

For the season, my record is 108-86 picking against the spread. Last week after going 8-3 in the first 11 games, my picks went downhill, as the last four best bets I suggested came up as losers. That just means we are due for a big bounce back this week.

*All odds and betting lines provided by WynnBet

Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (9-6)

Spread: KC (-5)

Money Line: KC (-225) CIN (+185)

Over/Under: 50.5 Points

The Kansas City Chiefs are officially back. Winners of eight-straight games, the Chiefs are now once again looking like the class of the AFC, as they try to hold onto the first seed and a bye in the first round of the playoffs. The Chiefs will face a tough task this week though, squaring off against the Bengals on the road.

Cincinnati is coming off a 20-point rout of the Baltimore Ravens last week, that puts them in the driver’s seat in the AFC North. They will clinch the division with either a win or a Ravens loss this weekend.

With both teams still having plenty to play for, this could be one of the more tightly-contested games we are going to see on Sunday. One thing to think about though is that these are two of the best offenses in the NFL. The Bengals’ score totals have eclipsed 50.5 points in six of their last eight games, while the Chiefs have averaged over 33 points in their last six games.

Best Bet:

Take the over.

Las Vegas Raiders (8-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts (9-6)

Spread: IND (-6.5)

Money Line: LV (+240) IND (-300)

Over/Under: 44.5 Points

The Las Vegas Raiders just won’t go away this season, as they have narrowly won their last two games to remain in the playoff hunt. Vegas will face their toughest task since playing the Chiefs three weeks ago when they square off against the Colts this weekend. When they played the Chiefs, the Raiders lost 48-9. Could we see a similar blowout now that they are set to play another really good team in the Colts?

Indianapolis has won six of their last seven games, yet are still one game out of first place in the AFC South. Since the Colts lost to the Titans both times they faced them this year, they do not hold the tie-breaker over Tennessee. This means their only path to winning the division is if they win the next two weeks and the Titans lose.

More likely, the Colts will have to make the playoffs as a Wild Card team, which makes this game against the Raiders that much more important. For the season, the Colts have +104 point differential, whereas the Raiders have posted a -71 mark.

Best Bet:

The Colts are the better team. Take Indy to cover the spread and win by a touchdown.

New York Giants (4-11) vs. Chicago Bears (5-10)

Spread: CHI (-6)

Money Line: NYG (+215) CHI (-265)

Over/Under: 37 Points

The Giants are absolutely awful, yet you can say the exact same thing about the Bears. Still, New York has lost by double-digits in each of their last four contests and in five of their last six.

Chicago is coming off a win on the road in Seattle and now get one last chance to leave a positive impression on their fans with this being their last home game.

Best Bet:

Take the Bears to cover the spread and beat the Giants.

Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) vs. Washington Football Teams (6-9)

Spread: PHI (-3)

Money Line: PHI (-170) WSH (+140)

Over/Under: 44.5 Points

The Philadelphia Eagles are still in the hunt to make the playoffs, having won five of their last six games as they look to close out the season strong. Philly’s defense has recently been the catalyst, as they have held the opposing team under 20 points in each of their last four games.

Meanwhile the Washington Football Team has fallen out of the playoff race entirely, after losing the last three games they have played. Washington just suffered a brutal loss at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys, losing 56-14.

These two teams squared off just two weeks ago and the Eagles won by 10 points at home. Covering a three-point spread should be easy for the Eagles, although it is hard to beat a divisional opponent twice in one season.

Best Bet:

Taking Washington to keep the Cowboys within 10 points was by far my worst pick last week, so there is no chance I am riding them again. Take the Eagles to cover.

Atlanta Falcons (7-8) vs. Buffalo Bills (9-6)

Spread: BUF (-14.5)

Money Line: ATL (+650) BUF (-1000)

Over/Under: 43.5 Points

After beating the New England Patriots by 11 points last week, the Buffalo Bills are back in the driver’s seat in the AFC East. Buffalo has been one of the better football teams in the NFL this year, and after a mid-season skid, they have rounded back into form winning each of the last two weeks.

Buffalo should absolutely win this week, but will they win by 15 points?

While the Atlanta Falcons are not the best team, they still have seven wins on the year. Their point differential of -122 illustrates how bad Atlanta can be, as they have endured their fair share of blowout losses in the past but they have also had weeks where they put it all together.

Best Bet:

This a huge spread for the Bills to cover in a game where they could start off flat in a letdown after their emotional win over the Pats next week. Take the Falcons with the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-4) vs. New York Jets (4-11)

Spread: TB (-13)

Money Line: TB (-750) NYJ (+525)

Over/Under: 45.5 Points

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be without two of their starting linebackers this weekend, as Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul have been ruled out with injuries. That shouldn’t really matter though when it comes to the final result of the game, because Tampa is clearly the better team in this matchup.

After a disappointing 9-0 loss against the New Orleans Saints two weeks ago, the Bucs bounced back with a 32-6 rout of the Panthers last week. When looking at their season +130 point differential compared to the Jets awful -173 mark, it is clear who should win this weekend.

Best Bet:

Take the Bucs to win this one in a landslide.

Miami Dolphins (8-7) vs. Tennessee Titans (10-5)

Spread: TEN (-3)

Money Line: MIA (+145) TEN (-175)

Over/Under: 39.5 Points

Can the Miami Dolphins keep their winning streak alive this week?

They have reeled off seven-straight games after previously losing seven in a row prior. While the winning streak has been very impressive and has put Miami right into the thick of the playoff race, the competition they have faced has been less than stellar.

The Baltimore Ravens are the only team over .500 that the Dolphins have beaten during this stretch, but even that win looks less impressive now that we have seen the Ravens drop four-straight games to lose their hold of the AFC North. This will be the real test this week to see if the Dolphins are legit conteders.

Meanwhile the Tennessee Titans are still looking to close out their division with the Colts currently right on their heels. Since they have the tie-breaker, the Titans can clinch with a win this Sunday.

Best Bet:

The Dolphins have all the momentum going into this game and they are getting three points. Take the Dolphins to stay within a field goal.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-13) vs. New England Patriots (9-6)

Spread: NE (-15.5)

Money Line: JAX (+700) NE (-1100)

Over/Under: 41.5 Points

There is no chance the Jaguars are going into Foxborough, in a game the Patriots need to win, and are going to come away victorious. The only thing hard about picking this game is the fact that the spread is so large. Still, there is just no way I can advise anyone to put any money on a team as bad as the Jaguars either.

One interesting way to play this game and avoid that spread though is to look at the under. The Jaguars offense shouldn’t score a lick on the Patriots defense, so even if New England doesn’t win by 16, the under could certainly still come through.

Best Bet:

Still, the best bet is to take the Pats to cover.

Houston Texans (4-11) vs. San Francisco 49ers (8-7)

Spread: SF (-12.5)

Money Line: HOU(+525) SF (-750)

Over/Under: 44 Points

Here we are with yet another game where the spread is over double-digits. The Houston Texans are not a good team by any stretch of the imagination, however they have won their last two games, including a surprising blowout win over the Los Angeles Chargers last weekend.

San Francisco desperately needs to win this game, as they are looking to close in on one of the Wild Card spots in the NFC. The 49ers have won five of their last seven games, but they do not seem to fare to well at home this season. Altogether they have a 5-3 record on the road and a 3-4 record at home. I expect the Niners win this one, but to win by 13 points is a lot to ask.

Best Bet:

Take the Texans with the spread.

Arizona Cardinals (10-5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (11-4)

Spread: DAL (-6)

Money Line: ARI (+200) DAL (-250)

Over/Under: 51 Points

After last week’s 56-14 victory over the Washington Football Team, everyone is jumping on the Dallas Cowboys as a new favorite in the NFC. Dallas has won four games in a row and has taken all of those games by at least a touchdown. Still, having the bye left to play for, the Cowboys will be going for a win this Sunday, despite already locking up the NFC East last week.

Meanwhile the Arizona Cardinals are in the midst of a three-game losing streak, which has cost them their lead in the NFC West. The Cardinals offense has not been nearly as explosive since the loss of DeAndre Hopkins and they are no longer looking like a legitimate threat in the NFC.

Still, the Cardinals have already clinched their spot in the playoffs and could send a message to Dallas with a win.

Best Bet:

While the Cardinals very well could come around this weekend, nothing they have shown us the last three weeks gives us reason to believe that will happen. Take the Cowboys to cover the spread.

Detroit Lions (2-12-1) vs. Seattle Seahawks (5-10)

Spread: SEA (-7)

Money Line: DET (+250) SEA (-310)

Over/Under: 42.5 Points

Over the last few months, the Detroit Lions have been one of the best stories in the NFL. While no one is going to mistake them for world-beaters, the Lions have suddenly become competitive almost every week and have actually won a few games.

Their point differential for the season may be -127, but over the last seven weeks, that number is a far more respectable -17. They have only been blown out once during that span, keeping every other loss they have suffered within four points.

The Seattle Seahawks are favored by a touchdown in this game, but their play doesn’t really inspire much confidence that they can cover that spread. Last week, a bad Bears team came into Seattle and battled back from down 24-14 to score 11 unanswered points to win in the fourth quarter.

Best Bet:

Take the Lions with the seven-point spread.

Carolina Panthers (5-10) vs. New Orleans Saints (7-8)

Spread: NO (-6.5)

Money Line: CAR (+230) NO (-290)

Over/Under: 38 Points

Remember when the Carolina Panthers started the season 3-0?

Well since then, they have been one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Panthers have lost five games in a row, dropping those games by an average margin of 16 points.

The Saints did not look great the last time we saw them, losing to the Miami Dolphins by a score of 20-3, but they were down to their fourth-string quarterback Ian Book. With a roster still depleted due to COVID, it is hard to know which version of the Saints will show up on Sunday.

Best Bet:

Just stay away from this game. There are too many variables to have any real idea of what is going to happen.

Cleveland Browns (7-8) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7-1)

Spread: CLE (-3)

Money Line: CLE (-175) PIT (-175)

Over/Under: 44 Points

Ben Roethlisberger is likely suiting up at Heinz Field for the last time when he takes center stage against the Cleveland Browns this week. Big Ben has announced he will retire after the season, so the Steelers will certainly have something to play for against a team they have traditionally dominated throughout his Hall of Fame career.

Yet despite all the circumstance, the Steelers are still underdogs at home in this one. The last time these two teams squared off, the Browns earned the victory, winning a 15-10 defensive battle. Unless Big Ben really turns back the clock, expect a similar outcome this time with a low-scoring game.

Best Bet:

Take the under.