NFL Betting Preview: Wild Card Round
It is finally the best time of the year, as the NFL Playoffs are here!
This regular season was a fun one to watch, with an extra week of action packed into the NFL calendar. Since Week 3, I have been giving you a betting preview each week, with a best bet against the spread for every game. On the season, my record is 113-94 (55%).
Now we have arrived to playoff betting, which should leave less room for wacky finishes as most of the inconsistent teams have already been eliminated from contention. This week there are six games to watch in this Wild Card round, giving you plenty of opportunities to lay some action on the NFL.
*All odds and betting lines provided by WynnBet
Las Vegas Raiders (10-7) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)
Spread: CIN (-5.5)
Money Line: LV (+195) CIN (-240)
Over/Under: 49 Points
The Las Vegas Raiders have already exceeded all expectations. Considering all of the turmoil this franchise endured throughout this season, the fact that they were able to win their way into the playoffs with four-straight wins is awfully impressive. Still, the combined margin of victory for all of those wins was just 12 points.
The Raiders are not a great team, they are just a resilient one that has found a way to win against some other .500 type teams down the stretch. The only team that the Raiders have beaten this year that ended up in the playoffs is the Dallas Cowboys and they won that game in overtime. The last time they played a playoff team was the Kansas City Chiefs and they lost 48-9. Back in November they played the Bengals and lost 32-13.
Cincinnati has a +84 point differential on the season, whereas the Raiders have a -55 point differential. The Bengals are the better team and should be able to win this game by at least a couple of field goals.
Best Bet:
Take the Bengals to cover the spread.
New England Patriots (10-7) vs. Buffalo Bills (11-6)
Spread: BUF (-4.5)
Money Line: NE (+180) BUF (-220)
Over/Under: 44 Points
On paper, there is no question who should win this game. The Buffalo Bills have the better quarterback, the better offense, even the better defense. For the season, the Bills have scored more points than the Patriots and have given up less, with both teams featuring point differentials over +150.
Buffalo is 6-3 at home this year and just beat the Patriots by 12 points two weeks ago. Here is the one thing though, the Patriots are 6-2 on the road this year and the last time they went to Buffalo they won a game very similar to the one we are about to watch on Saturday night. In that matchup the Patriots won 14-10, in a game where neither team could get much going due to freezing cold temperatures and crazy wind.
On Saturday the weather is expected to be comparable, as it will be absolutely freezing cold with some wind. The wind might not be as strong as it was last time, so maybe Josh Allen can still throw the ball, but it is sure to be a hard-fought game. The Bills are the better team but you can never count out a Bill Belichick team to win a bad weather playoff game.
Best Bet:
Regardless of who wins, this game should be a low-scoring affair. Take the under.
Philadelphia Eagles (9-8) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4)
Spread: TB (-8.5)
Money Line: PHI (+300) TB (-400)
Over/Under: 46 Points
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers would usually have a bye in previous seasons, but with the expanded playoff now making it so only the No. 1 seed gets a bye, Tampa has to win their way into the Divisional Round. The Philadelphia Eagles won four of their last five games and six of their last eight to close out the season, so they can certainly pull off the upset this weekend.
For the season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a +158 point differential, compared to a +59 mark from Philly. These two teams squared off once this year and the Bucs won 28-22. The Eagles are a better team now than they were when they last faced off against the Bucs at the end of October, but the result is expected to still be the same.
Best Bet:
While the temptation is there to fade the Bucs in this one, you could end up kicking yourself when Tampa jumps out to an early lead and the Eagles never turn it into a game. These teams are in different classes, so take the Buccaneers to cover that large spread and win by at least nine points.
San Francisco 49ers (10-7) vs. Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
Spread: DAL (-3)
Money Line: SF (+135) DAL (-165)
Over/Under: 51 Points
Betting on the Dallas Cowboys in the playoffs is a dangerous proposition. The Cowboys have not made a run to the Super Bowl, or even the conference championship game since 1995. Their record in the playoffs since then is 4-10. When it comes to playing in the Wild Card round though, the Cowboys are 4-4 since 1995, as they are 0-6 in the division round, so next week is where you should really be wary of laying anything on Dallas.
This week, the Cowboys will take on a 49ers team that has been up and down all year.
Judging by point differential, there is no doubt which team is better. The Cowboys at +172 and the Niners at +62. Dallas scored over 100 points more than the Niners this year and allowed less. San Francisco has been road warriors this year, winning six of their nine games away from home. Still, the Cowboys are supposed to win this game and the spread is not too crazy for them to cover.
Best Bet:
Take the Cowboys to cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
Spread: KC (-12.5)
Money Line: PIT (+500) KC (-700)
Over/Under: 46 Points
Never count out a team with nothing to lose. Ben Roethlisberger is already leaning into the underdog narrative, saying this week that they don’t belong in the playoffs so there are just going to go out and have fun on Sunday. That could be very dangerous for a team in the Chiefs that has everything to lose.
Despite their up-and-down season, the Chiefs still managed to win 12 games and post a +116 point differential. The Steelers are the only team other than the Raiders that have a negative point differential in the playoffs at an identical -55.
We last saw these teams square up just a few weeks ago on December 26th, when the Chiefs won 36-10. Based on that, Kansas City should be able to cover again, but last week they barely beat the Denver Broncos who had absolutely nothing to play for. With the Steelers finally getting healthy and their strong defense led by T.J. Watt, could they keep this game within 13 points?
Best Bet:
Take the Steelers with the points.
Arizona Cardinals (11-6) vs. Los Angles Rams (12-5)
Spread: LAR (-4)
Money Line: ARI (+165) LAR (-200)
Over/Under: 50 Points
The Arizona Cardinals started this season red-hot, winning their first seven games and 10 of their first 12. The Cardinals went on to lose four of their last five games and do not look to be the same team that once appeared to be a favorite in the NFC.
Last week, the Cardinals lost to the Seattle Seahawks by eight points, giving up 38 to them despite playing at home. Arizona’s defense has allowed at least 22 points in each of their last five games, as the Cardinals have been outscored 142-105 during that span. They faced off against the Rams on December 13th and lost by a touchdown at home.
The Rams closed their season relatively strong winning five of their last six games. The one loss came last week, when the Niners punched their ticket into the playoffs by beating the Rams in overtime. Los Angeles has a star-studded roster that just added another with former Pro Bowl safety Eric Weddle coming out of retirement to join their playoff roster.
Best Bet:
The Rams are the better team that is playing with more momentum. Take the L.A. to beat the Cardinals and cover that four-point spread.