NFL Betting Preview: Week 6
Tonight Week 6 of the NFL season will kick off, as Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Philadelphia and take on the Eagles.
The schedule only gets better this weekend, with division rivals like the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears set to square off, as well as some of the toughest competitors in the AFC with the Ravens and Chargers set to go head-to-head.
Up to this point in the season, our NFL Betting Preview’s have been a model of consistency. Through my first three weeks giving you the best bets for every game, we have hit nine picks each week.
If Lamar Jackson and the Ravens had just beaten the Colts by two more points on Monday night, we would have had our first double-digit winning week of the season. Let’s hope this is the week where more than nine winners come in off your Week 6 NFL Betting Preview.
*All odds and betting lines provided by WynnBet.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)
Spread: TB (-7)
Money Line: TB (-300) PHI (+250)
Over/Under: 52.5 Points
We are five weeks into the NFL season and I still have no idea if the Philadelphia Eagles are any good. You watch them lose three weeks in a row taking L’s to the 49ers, Cowboys and Chiefs and think this a bad team. Then they go out and turn heads by beating the Carolina Panthers.
Philadelphia is very much a hit-or-miss team right now. So while it seems really unlikely that they would pull off the upset and beat the reigning Super Bowl champs, you can’t count them out entirely at home.
The one thing that you can however expect is a high-scoring game. Philadelphia has allowed over 40 points in two of their last three matchups, while the Bucs have eclipsed 40 points scored twice this season.
Best Bet:
This could certainly be a blowout for Tampa where they cover that spread, but the best bet is take the over. That way if the Eagles hang in for a shootout, you win either way.
Miami Dolphins (1-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5)
Spread: MIA (-3)
Money Line: MIA (-185); JAX (+165)
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
If the state of football in South Florida (outside of Tampa) wasn’t sad enough, this weekend we get to see the Dolphins and Jaguars go head-to-head.
Speaking of Tampa, the Dolphins were embarrassed by the Buccaneers on Sunday, losing by FOUR touchdowns. This week should be much easier for Miami, but it’s still hard to have faith in this team on the road.
Starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was back in practice on Wednesday as he works his way back from broken ribs, but it is unclear if he will suit up on Sunday.
Best Bet:
This one has to come down to a game-time decision. If Tua plays, take the Dolphins to cover that spread and win by more than a field goal. If he sits one more week, just stay away from this one altogether.
Minnesota Vikings (2-3) vs. Carolina Panthers (3-2)
Spread: Pick’em
Money Line: MIN (-110); CAR (-110)
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
There is nothing like a good old fashioned pick’em!
The Minnesota Vikings have been underwhelming all year long and last week was no different. Despite playing at home, Minnesota was unable to cover the spread against the lowly Lions, winning by just two points.
Outside of a convincing Week 3 victory over the Seattle Seahawks, every game the Vikings have played this year has come down to one score. At least this week you don’t have to worry about them covering a spread.
On the other sideline, the Panthers are going into this matchup just happy to no longer be facing a team from the NFC East. Carolina was 3-0 prior to their Week 4 matchup against the Dallas Cowboys.
The Panthers lost by eight points in Dallas, then returned home to face the Eagles and lost by a field goal. Now they will look to get their season back on track with Minnesota coming into town.
Best Bet:
This game really is a coin-flip, which the oddsmakers obviously agree with by making it a pick’em. In these instances it is always safer to go with the home team. Take the Panthers.
Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) vs. Washington Football Team (2-3)
Spread: KC (-7)
Money Line: KC (-320); WFT (+260)
Over/Under: 55.5 Points
Coming into this season if someone would have told me the Kansas City Chiefs would have a losing record through five weeks, I would’ve told them they were out of their minds.
Patrick Mahomes was 38-8 in his career as a starter in the regular season, and was coming off a 14-1 campaign last year. Yet here we are through five weeks and the Chiefs hardly look like the same team that was just in the Super Bowl.
Kansas City just had the doors blown off them at home against the Buffalo Bills and will now be looking to even their record on the road against the Washington Football Team.
Best Bet:
When you have Patrick Mahomes starting at quarterback, points are going to come in a big way. The only problem for the Chiefs is they have been giving up more than they have been scoring.
The combined score for the Chiefs has eclipsed 60 points in four of their first five games, with the one outlier being a 30-24 loss to the Chargers a few weeks ago. Washington has played their fair share of high-scoring games as well, which makes the over the obvious best bet to take here.
L.A. Chargers (4-1) vs. Baltimore Ravens (4-1)
Spread: BAL (-3)
Money Line: LAC (+135); BAL (-155)
Over/Under: 51.5 Points
Is there anything better than watching Lamar Jackson run a no-huddle offense in the fourth quarter when is team is down by multiple scores?
On Monday Night Football, we watched Jackson engineer a remarkable fourth quarter comeback, stunning the Colts for the eventual overtime victory. We saw something similar play out a few weeks before that as well against the Kansas City Chiefs.
So far this season, the Ravens are 4-1, but they have only won by multiple scores once all year. Expect another close game this week against a really good L.A. Chargers team that features an early front-runner for MVP in Justin Herbert.
Herbert is coming off a four-touchdown performance against the Cleveland Browns, which saw him come just two yards short of a 400 passing.
Best Bet:
Even though this one is taking place in Baltimore, it is hard not to like the Chargers as an underdog pick here.
I have half a mind to just take L.A. on the money line and maximize the odds, but because of Lamar’s late-game heroics, it would be wise to still take the three points when picking the Chargers.
L.A. Rams (4-1) vs. New York Giants (1-4)
Spread: LAR (-10.5)
Money Line: LAR (-550); NYG (+425)
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
The New York Giants were blown out by 24 points last Sunday, but the final score does not tell the full story of their game against the Dallas Cowboys. New York kept things close in the first half, but then disaster struck as their starting backfield was knocked out due to injuries.
Saquon Barkley is still rehabbing from that ankle injury and is unlikely to play Sunday. Quarterback Daniel Jones had to exit that game as well and enter the concussion protocol after attempting to rush in a touchdown from the goal line.
If both Barkley and Jones are out this week, the Giants don’t have a chance to win on Sunday. Especially against a Rams team that carries a 4-1 record into the matchup.
Best Bet:
That is a really big spread for a road team to cover, but the Giants are just decimated by injuries right now. Even on the road, take the Rams to win and cover that huge spread.
Green Bay Packers (4-1) vs. Chicago Bears (3-2)
Spread: GB (-5)
Money Line: GB (-220); CHI (+185)
Over/Under: 45 Points
Ever since a shocking Week 1 defeat, where Aaron Rodgers put together one of the worst performances of his career, the Green Bay Packers have returned to form.
Green Bay has reeled off four-straight victories, taking advantage of a relatively easy schedule to claim an early first place lead in the NFC North. That could all change though if the Bears pull off the upset this week.
Like most years, the backbone of this Bears team is their defense, having held opponents to two touchdowns or less in each of their last four matchups. Rookie quarterback Justin Fields is still learning, but he has earned two wins a row by limiting the mistakes he made earlier this season.
The Packers vs. Bears rivalry is one of the best in the sport, so expect a great game between these NFC North counterparts on Sunday.
Best Bet:
Green Bay should be favored to win this game, but the five-point spread seems like a lot to cover on the road against this Bears defense. Take Chicago with the points.
Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) vs. Detroit Lions (0-5)
Spread: CIN (-3.5)
Money Line: CIN (-180); DET (+160)
Over/Under: 48 Points
It seems obvious to point out that the Lions are a bad team, considering the fact that they have yet to win a game this season. The Lions have lost by 10 or more points in three of their five matchups this year, but have kept things close the last three weeks, which could explain this spread a little bit.
It is not often in the NFL that you see a 19-17 score, yet the Lions have lost by that margin twice in the last three weeks. Last week, the Minnesota Vikings narrowly escaped with a home victory over Detroit, as the Lions defense has shown some teeth.
Still, the Bengals are just a better team than Detroit.
Cincinnati does not have the most impressive victories this season, beating the Vikings, Steelers and Jaguars, but they still find themselves with a winning record through five weeks.
Last week, the Bengals lost to the Green Bay Packers on a field goal in overtime. This should be a much easier matchup for the Bengals to get back in the win column.
Best Bet:
The Bengals should win this game, but will they do so by more than a field goal to cover that 3.5 point spread?
The under is an attractive bet with this game, but the best bet is for the Bengals to win by more than a field goal and cover the spread.
Houston Texans (1-4) vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-4)
Spread: IND (-9.5)
Money Line: HOU (+330); IND (-410)
Over/Under: 43 Points
With all due respect to these two teams and their fan bases, I cannot think of a game I would want to watch less this weekend than the Houston Texans vs. the Indianapolis Colts.
Davis Mills continues to be the de facto starting quarterback for the Texans, as the rookie has been at the helm ever since Tyrod Taylor pulled his hamstring in Week 2.
To his credit, Mills is coming off his best performance by far against the New England Patriots last week. Mills completed 21 of his 29 passes for 312 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Still, the Texans lost their fourth-straight game and remain one of the worst teams in the NFL.
When it comes to the Indianapolis Colts, their season has not gone much better. The Colts have endured a very tough schedule so far, with their only win coming against the Miami Dolphins in overtime.
The Colts dominated the Baltimore Ravens through the first three quarters on Monday Night Football last week, only to blow the game late. This might be the last chance for the Colts to turn their season around before it’s too late.
Best Bet:
The Colts have something to prove this week, but that 9.5-point spread is going to be tough to cover, especially if last week’s version of Davis Mills shows up.
Still, I am taking the Colts in this one to win by at least 10 points.
Arizona Cardinals (5-0) vs. Cleveland Browns (3-2)
Spread: CLE (-2.5)
Money Line: ARI (+125); CLE (-145)
Over/Under: 50 Points
Last week was the first time this season that the Arizona Cardinals did not score 30 points in a game, as the San Francisco 49ers held them to just 17. Those 17 points were still good enough for a victory though, keeping the Cardinals undefeated.
For the Cleveland Browns, last week represented their highest scoring game of 2021, as they lost in a 47-42 shootout against the Los Angeles Chargers. Prior to that game, the Browns had only allowed 34 points in the previous three weeks combined.
Considering how prolific the Cardinals have been offensively, we could see another shootout this weekend, but Cleveland could also return to their roots as a defensive-minded team and drag this game into the mud.
Best Bet:
Anytime I can get even money or better on the Arizona Cardinals, that is the pick I’m taking. This game’s best bet is the underdog Cardinals on the money line.
Dallas Cowboys (4-1) vs. New England Patriots (2-3)
Spread: DAL (-3.5)
Money Line: DAL (-190); NE (+170)
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Ever since Tom Brady left the New England Patriots, they have become one of the most difficult teams to gamble on in the NFL.
You can’t count them out of any game, because Bill Belichick is still on the sideline and can out game plan any coach in the NFL. But you can’t on them because they don’t have the same stability at the quarterback position or as talented of a roster.
This week, the Patriots will take on a Dallas Cowboys team that is talking Super Bowl after just five weeks.
To the Cowboys credit, their offense has been firing on all cylinders the last three weeks, averaging over 40 points a game. On the other hand those blowouts came against the Philadelphia Eagles, Carolina Panthers and New York Giants.
We will see if the Cowboys can keep that offense rolling against Belichick’s defense on Sunday.
Best Bet:
The Patriots still have not won a game at Foxborough this season and that won’t change this week. Take the Cowboys to win and cover the spread.
Las Vegas Raiders (3-2) vs. Denver Broncos (3-2)
Spread: LV (+4)
Money Line: LV (+165); DEN (-185)
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
The Las Vegas Raiders have been in the news cycle this week for all the wrong reasons, as Jon Gruden resigned after homophobic and misogynistic emails surfaced dating back to his time at ESPN.
Now the Raiders have to take the field under the direction of a new head coach, with the spotlight squarely on them. There is no telling which version of this team will show up on Sunday.
Vegas got off to such a great start this season, winning each of their first three games. But now they have lost two in a row and could be set up for a third unless they pull off the upset against the Broncos on the road.
Best Bet:
The best bet on this game is just take the under and hope for a low-scoring game. The Raiders have only mustered 23 points across the last two weeks and the Broncos have yet to eclipse 27 points all season. If this turns into a game of field goals, that 44.5-point under should come in.
Seattle Seahawks (2-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3)
Spread: PIT (-4.5)
Money Line: SEA (+180); PIT (-210)
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Geno Smith is finally back to being a starting quarterback in the NFL. At least for now that is.
Russell Wilson just underwent surgery on his thumb and will not be able to return to the field for another four to eight weeks. This put the Seahawks season in jeopardy, as they are counting on a journeyman quarterback to lead them for a large portion of their season.
In Smith’s first taste of action last week, the 31-year-old completed 10 of his 17 passes for 131 yards, one touchdown and one interception. The Steelers defense should present a difficult first challenge for him on Sunday Night Football.
While the obvious bet is to pick against the team who is missing their starting quarterback, the Pittsburgh Steelers have not been a great team to lay money on at this point in the season.
Pittsburgh is still the only team to beat the Bills this year, but Week 1 was a long time ago. Since then, the Steelers have looked far from being a real contender as Ben Roethlisberger is no longer the type of quarterback that can carry a flawed offense.
Best Bet:
The Steelers might win this game, but covering the spread and winning by more than a field goal is not something I’d lay money on. Take the Seahawks with the points instead.
Buffalo Bills (4-1) vs. Tennessee Titans (3-2)
Spread: BUF (-5)
Money Line: BUF (-230); TEN (+195)
Over/Under: 54.5 Points
Did the oddsmakers not see what the Buffalo Bills just did to the Chiefs in Kansas City?!
The Bills just announced themselves as legitimate Super Bowl favorites after winning by 18 points on Monday Night Football for their fourth-straight victory.
After avenging themselves in their rematch of last year’s AFC Championship, there is certainly some room for a letdown this week. Especially against a Titans team that is no pushover and will be playing at home.
Still, I wouldn’t bet on that playing out.
Best Bet:
Getting the Bills on a spread that is less than a touchdown feels too good to be true. This is not only the best bet of this game, but it is the best bet of this week. Take the Bills to win by more than five points and cover.