NFL Betting Preview: Week 4

We are back for another week of NFL action, and this is sure to be a good one. Any time you can cap off a slate of Sunday games with a grudge match between Tom Brady and his former team, you know it’s a great week for football.

Last week ended up being a fairly good one if you followed along with our betting preview. Things would have been even better if not for a few bad beats.

Who would have thought the over would come in for Chiefs vs. Chargers, but Kansas City would lose?

Still, of the 15 “Best Bet” picks from the Week 3 Betting Preview, nine came through as winners.

This week we have 15 more “Best Bet” picks to chose from, so let’s take a look now at your betting preview for Week 4 of the NFL season.

*All odds and betting lines provided by WynnBet.

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)

Spread: CIN (-7.5)

Money Line: JAX (+265); CIN (-350)

Over/Under: 45.5 Points

Trevor Lawrence is quickly learning that the NFL is nowhere near as easy as playing on a loaded Clemson team in the ACC. Lawrence is trying to live up to the hype of being the No. 1 overall pick, while starting for one of the worst teams in NFL. Not an easy task for sure.

Still, Lawrence has had the kind of turnover problems you would expect from an inexperienced rookie quarterback, throwing seven picks to five touchdowns thus far this season.

Meanwhile last year’s first-overall pick Joe Burrow has the Bengals 2-1, looking like a team that will be in the playoff hunt all year.

Best Bet:

Last week, the Jacksonville Jaguars squared off against the Arizona Cardinals and the spread was 7.5 points. My advice then was the same as it is now, don’t overthink this. Bet the Bengals to cover the spread and beat the lowly Jags.

Houston Texans (1-2) vs. Buffalo Bills (2-1)

Spread: BUF (-16)

Money Line: HOU (+775); BUF (-1250)

Over/Under: 47 Points

Can you believe that spread?!

The Bills would have to beat the Texans by two touchdowns and a field goal to cover that 16-point spread. One reason to take Buffalo is that they would’ve covered that spread each of the last two weeks.

Two weeks ago, the Bills traveled to Miami and spanked the Dolphins, shutting them out and winning 35-0. Then last week the Bills beat the Washington Football by 22 points at home.

The problem with betting this game is that Houston’s has not lost by that many points all season.

With Tyrod Taylor still injured and Deshaun Watson on leave due to the sexual assault allegations, Davis Mills remains as the Texans starting quarterback. Last week, Mills was not terrible, completing 19-of-28 passes for 168 yards and one touchdown. He did not turn the ball over once in the game.

Buffalo is going to win the game, but expecting them to cover 16 points is a tall task.

Best Bet:

The Bills very well could win this one 35-0 like they did two weeks ago, but it is probably better to take the under in points. If this game is close it’s unlikely going to be a shootout, but instead a defensive struggle.

Indianapolis Colts (0-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-2)

Spread: MIA (-1.5)

Money Line: IND (+113); MIA (-133)

Over/Under: 42.5 Points

In this matchup we have the Jacoby Brissett revenge game to look forward to, although the 28-year-old says that is not something that is on his mind.

Still, it would not be surprising if Brissett took this one a bit personal, as the Colts first gave his starting job to Phillip Rivers last year, before trading for Carsen Wentz and letting Brissett walk this offseason.

Indianapolis is winless at this stage, with an offense that has yet to score more than two touchdowns in any week this season. Meanwhile the Dolphins have lost each of their last two games since Tua Tagovailoa got hurt early in their Week 2 matchup against the Bills.

Brissett did lead the Dolphins on a fourth quarter comeback against the Raiders last week. They just came up short in overtime.

Best Bet:

The Miami Dolphins entered this season with expectations, but have failed to meet them up to this point. That could change against a bad Colts team on Sunday, especially in Miami.

Take the Dolphins to win and cover that small spread.

Tennessee Titans (2-1) vs. New York Jets (0-3)

Spread: TEN (-7)

Money Line: TEN (-340); NYJ (+260)

Over/Under: 44 Points

After a disappointing Week 1 loss, the Tennessee Titans have reeled off two-straight victories and are in line for an easy third on Sunday. Derrick Henry was held to just 58 yards in that first loss and has since broke out for 295 rushing yards over his last two weeks.

Henry may not be able to break through this week, facing a defense that is only allowing 3.8 yards per carry at this stage of the season. The Jets defense has actually been pretty solid this year, at least for a winless team. They have held holding opposing teams to under 30 points every week thus far.

Still, it is hard to think the Jets will end their winless streak this week against a Titans team that is considered one of the better contenders in the AFC.

Best Bet:

The Titans have yet to have a real blowout victory in the early season. That will change on Sunday. Take the Titans to cover the spread and beat the Jets.

New York Giants (0-3) vs. New Orleans Saints (2-1)

Spread: NO (-7.5)

Money Line: NYG (+280); NO (-360)

Over/Under: 41.5 Points

The New York Giants retired Eli Manning‘s number last week, but that certainly did not motivate their team to perform any better. New York lost yet again, this time to another winless team in the Atlanta Falcons.

Despite the team’s struggles, third-year quarterback Daniel Jones has actually looked pretty solid so far this season. Jones has only lost one fumble and has not thrown a pick yet through three games. At the same time, he has only thrown two touchdown passes.

Meanwhile the New Orleans Saints are coming off an impressive victory over the New England Patriots, beating Bill Belichick by 15 points.

The Saints defense is legit, as they are leading the NFL in team interceptions with six and are holding teams to a measly 2.8 yards per carry. That is the second-best mark in the NFL when it comes to defending the run.

Best Bet:

No team wants to start the season 0-4, so expect the Giants to put up a fight on the road. Just not a good enough one to win the game.

Still, I’m taking the Giants with the points and banking on New Orleans only winning this game by one score.

Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (1-2)

Spread: KC (-7.5)

Money Line: KC (-330); PHI (+255)

Over/Under: 54.5 Points

If someone told me the Kansas City Chiefs would start this season 1-2, I would’ve thought they were crazy. The Chiefs have kept every game close, losing the last two weeks by a combined score of 66-59.

So far it has been the defense that has let Kansas City down, but that does not take Patrick Mahomes‘ offense off the hook. Mahomes had never thrown an interception in September coming into this season. Now he has thrown three.

Expect Mahomes to go scorched earth against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that was just lit up for 41 points by the Dallas Cowboys on Monday.

Best Bet:

Kansas City should be able to even up their record this week. Still, they have been playing games too close for comfort as of late and expecting them to win by more than a touchdown on the road may be a tough ask.

With the Chiefs shaky defense and Mahomes looking to break through a slump, I would just bet the over in this game.

Washington Football Team (1-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

Spread: WFT (-1.5)

Money Line: WFT (-120); ATL (+100)

Over/Under: 47.5 Points

The Atlanta Falcons beat one of the NFC East’s bottom-dwellers last week, can they down another this time around?

Even in earning their victory against the Giants, Atlanta did not look great, scoring just 17 points. Also while they did hold the Giants to just 14 points, it is hard to trust a defense that gave up a league-worst 80 points in their first two weeks.

Similar to the Falcons, the only victory that Washington has came against the Giants. In their other two matchups, Washington has failed to score more than 21 points.

Best Bet:

It really is hard to have conviction putting money on either of these teams, as you would basically just be betting on the ineptitude of their opposition. This is going to be the game to stay away from this week.

Carolina Panthers (3-0) vs. Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

Spread: DAL (-4.5)

Money Line: CAR (+170); DAL (-215)

Over/Under: 50.5 Points

Maybe the New York Jets should have hung onto that Sam Darnold guy. Darnold has the Panthers undefeated through three weeks, with their latest victory coming against the Houston Texans.

While Darnold has been good, it has really been Carolina’s defense that has shined through, holding opposing teams under 14 points in each of their three wins. No team has allowed less points this season than Carolina.

This week certainly presents the greatest challenge for that Panther defense, as the Dallas Cowboys are coming off a 41-21 blowout victory over the Eagles on Monday night.

Best Bet:

If Carolina does pull off the upset, we will have to start really taking them seriously. Still, because the game is in Dallas, it’s hard to pick against the Cowboys, even if it could be a close one.

Pick the Cowboys in this game, but play it safe by betting them on the money line.

Cleveland Browns (2-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings (1-2)

Spread: CLE (-2)

Money Line: CLE (-130); MIN (+110)

Over/Under: 51.5 Points

The Minnesota Vikings are finally in the win column, as they were able to beat the Seattle Seahawks in their home opener last Sunday.

Prior to that matchup, Minnesota had lost two very close games, the first being an overtime loss in Week 1 to the Bengals and then a one-point loss the following week against the Arizona Cardinals. Now the Vikings will look to even their record against Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns.

Cleveland is coming off their best week of the season, where their defense held the Chicago Bears to just six points. Head coach Kevin Stefanski is very familiar with Minnesota, having previously been their offensive coordinator before taking the job in Cleveland before last season.

Stefanski is going to try to keep the ball on the ground, testing a Vikings defensive front that has struggled so far this year.

Still, with new additions Dalvin Tomlinson and Michael Pierce getting more comfortable each week, that Minnesota defense is definitely on an upswing. Last week in the second half, the Vikings kept Russell Wilson off the board entirely. Expect them to build off that this week.

Best Bet:

It is surprising to see that the Minnesota Vikings are slight underdogs at home in this matchup. Because they aren’t favored in a game that really could go either way, I would try to cash in on the Vikings money line.

Detroit Lions (0-3) vs. Chicago Bears (1-2)

Spread: CHI (-2.5)

Money Line: DET (+125); CHI (-145)

Over/Under: 42 Points

This game truly is a battle of two teams who are likely to finish near the bottom of the NFC North.

The Detroit Lions are right back where we have seen them in so many years past, but this year they don’t even have Matthew Stafford to go out and win them a few games.

On the other hand you have the Chicago Bears, who can’t figure out who to start at quarterback on Sunday. Andy Dalton was supposed to be this team’s starter, but an early injury opened the door for rookie Justin Fields.

In his first career start last week, Fields looked completely overmatched, completing just six of his 20 passes against the Browns for just 68 yards. It’s tough to complete blame him though, considering he was sacked NINE times.

Dalton could return from his knee injury this week, but is still questionable at this time. Regardless of who starts though, the Bears offense is not scaring anybody right now.

This game is either going to be a shocking nail-bitter, or an absolute snooze-fest, with the latter being more likely.

Best Bet:

While the Detroit Lions have been bad all year, they did just hold Lamar Jackson and Ravens under 20 points. That defense may be finding an identity, and enough of one to keep this thing close against a division rival.

This game is far more likely to be dragged into the mud than to be a shootout. Bet the under, even though it’s only 42 points.

Arizona Cardinals (3-0) vs. L.A. Rams (3-0)

Spread: LAR (-4.5)

Money Line: ARI (+180); LAR (-225)

Over/Under: 55 Points

Tom Brady’s return to New England may be the most hyped matchup of the week, but this might be the game fans should really be paying attention to.

There is nothing like when two undefeated teams square up, especially when they are as fun to watch as these teams.

The Rams are coming off a statement game, as they beat the defending champs by 10 points last Sunday. There could be some room for a letdown after such an impressive performance, but not when you have a team as deep and talented as the Rams.

This is what makes the matchup so tough for Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. There is nothing that can blow up a dual-threat quarterbacks game like getting pressure up the middle and Aaron Donald certainly provides that for L.A.

Best Bet:

There is every chance that the Cardinals could win this game outright or at least keep it within a field goal. They are a really good team with a dynamic offense.

The Rams just might be the best team in football. Take L.A. to cover the spread and deliver Arizona’s first loss of the season.

Seattle Seahawks (1-2) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-1)

Spread: SF (-2.5)

Money Line: SEA (+130); SF (-150)

Over/Under: 52 Points

Back in 2019, there was no matchup better than the San Francisco 49ers vs. the Seattle Seahawks. That season ended with a thrilling Week 17 matchup between the two teams, with the NFC West division title hanging in the balance.

San Francisco won that game, earning a bye and home-field advantage through the playoffs, setting the stage for their run to the Super Bowl. But since then, neither of these teams look as potent as they were two years ago.

The Seattle Seahawks are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Vikings, where their offense went ice-cold for the second half. Russell Wilson will be trying to get his team on track this week, but will have a tough task on the road.

San Francisco would still be undefeated right now, if not for a last-second game-winning 51-yard field goal by Mason Crosby. Still, this is not the same team as the one that went to the Super Bowl.

Both of these teams need to build some confidence and swagger to regain their previous form and make a real run this year. This is an incredibly important week for both of these teams to do just that.

Best Bet:

On paper, the pick here is probably San Francisco because they are the home team with the better roster. Still, there is something about having the better quarterback that makes the Seahawks a really attractive underdog pick here.

Wilson is going to remind everyone how good he is this week. Take Seattle on the money line to pull off the upset.

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) vs. Denver Broncos (3-0)

Spread: Pick-em’

Money Line: BAL (-105); DEN (-115)

Over/Under: 45 Points

A literal pick’em, as the oddsmakers have not provided a spread for this game. A lot of money may come in on Baltimore, which could change that spread before Sunday. So jump on this game as soon as possible.

The Denver Broncos are getting a lot of respect here, which is earned considering their undefeated record. At the same time, not all undefeated records are created equal.

Denver’s list of victories is certainly less than impressive, having beaten the Giants, Jaguars and Jets so far. That is not their fault though.

If the Broncos can find a way to beat the Ravens this weekend, everyone will begin to take them seriously. I just wouldn’t count on that happening.

Best Bet:

The Baltimore Ravens should absolutely win this game, even though it is on the road.

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) vs. Green Bay Packers (2-1)

Spread: GB (-6.5)

Money Line: PIT (+240); GB (-300)

Over/Under: 45.5 Points

Name value alone, this might be the best quarterback matchup of the week. Two future Hall of Famers going head-to-head. The problem is one of those Hall of Famers is clearly washed up, as Ben Roethlisberger does not look right this season.

Aaron Rodgers might have a contentious relationship with the Green Bay Packers franchise, but he committed to stay for this season and he is looking to win. Each week Green Bay should get better and better with the reigning MVP at the helm.

Best Bet:

Take the Packers to win this one by at least a touchdown.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) vs. New England Patriots (1-2)

Spread: TB (-7)

Money Line: TB (-310); NE (+240)

Over/Under: 49 Points

There is something special about the Buccaneers abbreviation being the same as Tom Brady’s initials. Because TB vs. NE might as well be Tom Brady vs. New England this week.

That is the narrative that will be sold for Sunday Night Football and will be the reason the game does a massive number on TV. That story might distract you though from an obvious truth.

Tom Brady has a way better roster than the one Bill Belichick is trying to win with in New England.

There is always that chance for Belichick to stun us all and formulate the perfect game plan to stop Brady’s star-studded offense. But that’s not something I would bet on.

Best Bet:

The Buccaneers are the better team and should win this game by more than a touchdown. Take Tampa to cover.

Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) vs. L.A. Chargers (2-1)

Spread: LAC (-3.5)

Money Line: LV (+155); LAC (-185)

Over/Under: 52.5 Points

For the second time this season, the Las Vegas Raiders will be playing on Monday night. Last time, Vegas pulled off the overtime victory against the Baltimore Ravens. Can they stay undefeated and handle business against the Chargers this week?

The Raiders narrowly earned a victory last week, as Jacoby Brissett led the Miami Dolphins on a fourth quarter comeback to send the game to overtime. Vegas kicked two field goals in overtime to earn the victory.

Now they are going to take on the same team that just went into Kansas City and beat the Chiefs by six points last week. That is why the Chargers are favored here.

If Los Angeles held Patrick Mahomes to just 24 points, there is a good chance they can be even more stifling to Derek Carr. Second-year quarterback Justin Herbert is also coming off his best game of the season, as he put together a four-TD, turnover-free performance last Sunday.

Best Bet:

Playing at home, the Chargers are going to take this one and cover the spread by winning by more than a field goal.