NFL Betting Preview: Week 11

The NFL season is flying by, as we only have eight weeks remaining in the regular season.

Last night, the New England Patriots did what they do best. Beat up the Atlanta Falcons.

Throughout the rest of the weekend there are plenty of exciting games to watch and lay some action on as well. Last week, seven of my 12 best bet picks came in, improving my season record to 63-48.

Hopefully we can continue the winning this weekend, as we have a packed slate of 14 games.

*All odds and betting lines provided by WynnBet

New Orleans Saints (5-4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)

Spread: PHI (-2)

Money Line: NO (+110) PHI (-130)

Over/Under: 43.5 Points

The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off a dominant performance on the road where they beat the Denver Broncos by 17 points to inch closer to playoff contention.

In the last three weeks, the Eagles have two dominant wins and a loss by just a field goal. For whatever it is worth, they have asserted themselves as the second-best team in the NFC East, although any shot at winning the division is basically over at this stage of the season.

Still, the Wild Card is a route to the playoffs the Eagles could attain, so they will be giving it their best effort at home against a Saints team that is far more beatable without Jameis Winston starting at quarterback.

It is interesting that the spread is set at two points, as that is exactly the margin that New Orleans has lost by in each of the last two weeks. Last week, they played the favored-Titans very close on the road, so you cannot count them out this week by any stretch of the imagination.

Best Bet:

The Philadelphia Eagles have not won two games in a row all season. Bet the underdog Saints to pull off the upset outright on the money line.

Houston Texans (1-8) vs. Tennessee Titans (8-2)

Spread: TEN (-10)

Money Line: HOU (+370) TEN (-470)

Over/Under: 44.5 Points

In a season where it feels like we never really know what is going to happen any given Sunday, this game feels obvious.

How could the Tennessee Titans possibly lose to the Houston Texans?

Feel free to hold that statement over my head if this comes back as the upset of the week, but I just don’t see it.

I also don’t see this as anything but a massive home blowout victory for Tennessee.

Best Bet:

Take the Titans to cover the double-digit spread.

Green Bay Packers (8-2) vs. Minnesota Vikings (4-5)

Spread: GB (-1.5)

Money Line: GB (-130) MIN (+110)

Over/Under: 47 Points

If you want to see what winning ugly looks like, watch the tape of the Green Bay Packers 17-0 victory over the Seattle Seahawks last week. With Aaron Rodgers returning to the field after getting COVID and Russell Wilson coming off his broken finger, that game was SLOPPY.

Neither team looked good offensively, as only three points were scored altogether in the first three quarters. Finally in the fourth, the Packers scored a few touchdowns to make the game look lopsided, but it was really an exercise in futility.

Despite the shaky performance, Green Bay moved to 8-2 on the season, giving them a commanding lead in the NFC North. The Minnesota Vikings will be playing as if their season is on the line this week, as they do still play the Packers twice this season and may not think they are completely out of it.

The Vikings are definitely the best team in the division outside of Green Bay, with a +10 point differential through nine games played.

Best Bet:

Underdogs have done great this season, so it is hard to dismiss the Vikings at home here. Still, I’m betting on Aaron Rodgers bouncing back the same way he did after his awful performance in Week 1, when he had a four-TD game in Week 2.

Take the Packers to cover that small spread and beat the Vikings on the road.

Baltimore Ravens (6-3) vs. Chicago Bears (3-6)

Spread: BAL (-5)

Money Line: BAL (-230) CHI (+190)

Over/Under: 45 Points

The Baltimore Ravens are one of the hardest teams to figure out this season. They have a winning record and will look great one week, blowing out the Chargers, only to get blown out by the Bengals the following week.

They are also coming off an embarrassing loss, dropping last week’s Thursday Night Football matchup to the Miami Dolphins as they only mustered 10 points. It is hard to bank on a bounce back, but they did have an extra few days to prepare for this matchup.

It also helps the Ravens that they will be taking on a Chicago Bears team that has been bad pretty much all season.

Best Bet:

Bet on Baltimore to cover.

San Francisco 49ers (4-5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7)

Spread: SF (-6)

Money Line: SF (-260) JAX (+220)

Over/Under: 45 Points

If the San Francisco 49ers can beat the previously 7-2 Los Angles Rams by 21 points, they better be able to beat the 2-7 Jacksonville Jaguars by six.

Jacksonville is playing better football over the past month, winning two of their last four games. They also hung in their with the Colts last week, losing by six points, which could explain the spread in this game.

Still, the Niners can’t lose this game after the performance we just saw them have on Monday Night Football.

Best Bet:

Bet on San Fran to win this one by at least a touchdown and cover the spread.

Indianapolis Colts (5-5) vs. Buffalo Bills (6-3)

Spread: BUF (-7)

Money Line: IND (+260) BUF (-320)

Over/Under: 50 Points

At certain points this season, the Buffalo Bills have looked like legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Then at other point you are left wondering how they could possibly lose to the Jaguars.

Buffalo at least followed up their dissapointing loss to Jacksonville with a rout of the New York Jets, but it is hard to shake the memory of them failing to put up more than six points against one of the worst teams in the NFL.

The Colts on the other hand have quietly won four of their last five games, with the only loss coming against the Tennessee Titans in overtime. While they might lose on the road this week, you have like their chances to keep the game close.

Best Bet:

Take the seven points and bet on the Colts with the spread.

Miami Dolphins (3-7) vs. New York Jets (2-7)

Spread: MIA (-3)

Money Line: MIA (-170) NYJ (+150)

Over/Under: 44.5 Points

There are 11 teams in the NFL that are yet to eclipse 200 points scored this season and two of them are squaring off in this game. The only problem is both of these teams feature terrible defenses as well.

The Miami Dolphins have only had three games this season where the total score has eclipsed 44 points, which could led you to take the under. The only problem is that the Jets have given up at least 45 points in three of their last four games.

After beating the Baltimore Ravens, you would think the Dolphins have turned the corner enough to beat the Jets, but you just never know with either of these teams.

Best Bet:

I am not confident at all in the Dolphins, but I am even less confident in the Jets. Take Miami to cover.

Washington Football Team (3-6) vs. Carolina Panthers (5-5)

Spread: CAR (-3)

Money Line: WSH (+150) CAR (-170)

Over/Under: 43.5 Points

The story lines are really juicy for this game, as you get two homecomings in one matchup.

Ron Rivera will return to Carolina as the coach of the Washington Football Team, while Cam Newton returns as the Panthers starting quarterback.

As much as we can talk about all those story lines, the one we should really be paying attention to is the fact that the Panthers finally have a healthy Christian McCaffrey.

McCaffrey averaged 7.3 yards per carry last week and had 165 total yards of offense. With Newton and McCaffrey, the Panthers can once again be deadly in the Red Zone.

To give Rivera’s Football Team credit, Washington is coming off a rout of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Still, that win snapped a four-game losing streak, so it could have just been a one-week fluke.

Best Bet:

Cam Newton’s return is too much fun to root against him. Bet the Panthers to win by more than a field goal.

Detroit Lions (0-8-1) vs. Cleveland Browns (5-5)

Spread: CLE (-11)

Money Line: DET (+390) CLE (-490)

Over/Under: 43.5 Points

I realize the Cleveland Browns looked really bad last week, but that was against the New England Patriots. They should have no problem getting back over .500 this week, as they are facing the worst team in the NFL.

At least the Detroit Lions didn’t lose last week, but a tie is hardly a win. The question in this game is how many points will the Lions lose by?

Then again, it would be pretty funny if the Browns (who were the last team to have completely defeated season) were the team Detroit finally got their first win against.

Best Bet:

Cleveland probably wins the game, but 11 points is a big spread. Take the points and bank on the Lions to keep this one within 10.

Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (5-4)

Spread: CIN (-1)

Money Line: CIN (-115) LV (-105)

Over/Under: 49.5 Points

These two teams are exactly the same to me. There have been weeks were I believe that they are legitimate playoff contenders that could win their respective divisions and then just as quickly, I lose all faith in them.

Both teams are also coming off similar embarrassing losses to division rivals, with the Bengals losing their last game against the Browns 41-16 and the Raiders losing their last game to the Chiefs 41-14.

Point differential tells us that the Bengals are better, as they are +33 on the season, whereas the Raiders are -20. Cincinnati is also the fresher team, coming of their bye.

Best Bet:

There is a reason why this is essentially a pick-em game, as both of these teams are close. I’d lean toward the Bengals, but that is not necessarily the best bet. These teams have defenses that have been giving up a ton of points lately and offenses capable of taking advantage of those defenses.

Take the over in total points.

Dallas Cowboys (7-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)

Spread: KC (-2.5)

Money Line: DAL (+125) KC (-145)

Over/Under: 56 Points

Are the Chiefs finally back?

Their blowout victory over the Raiders certainly looked a lot more like the team that we thought Kansas City would be, as opposed to the shell of themselves they have actually been all season.

Despite all their struggles the Chiefs are back in the driver’s seat of their division and can build off that momentum with seven more games before the playoffs.

Dallas presents a really difficult test for the Chiefs, as the Cowboys have been one of the best team’s in the NFL this season. The Cowboys offense is legit and should be able to find the holes they can exploit against Kansas City.

Best Bet:

Dallas has been a better team than the Chiefs this year, yet they are underdogs in this game based on Kansas City’s previous reputation and the game being played at home.

I’m taking the Cowboys with the points.

Arizona Cardinals (8-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (3-6)

Spread: ARI (-2)

Money Line: ARI (-125) SEA (+105)

Over/Under: 48.5 Points

The Arizona Cardinals are a team that desperately needs their bye week. Arizona is banged up with some of their best players like DeAndre Hopkins and Kyler Murray both dealing with injuries.

Hopkins won’t be playing, but Murray is still a game-time decision. In the end, Arizona may decide it best not to push Murray, as they have their bye next week and could give him two full weeks to get right.

On the other sideline, Russell Wilson is going to be playing with his entire season on the line. The Seahawks cannot afford to lose any more games this season, particularly against a division rival. Being at home should help Seattle as well.

Best Bet:

Take the Seahawks with the points.

Also a bonus money line play would be to take the Seahawks and the Cowboys in a parlay to pull of upsets.

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3-1) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)

Spread: LAC (-6.5)

Money Line: PIT (+230) LAC (-270)

Over/Under: 47 Points

Last week, Pittsburgh had the embarrassing distinction of being the first team to face the Detroit Lions and not come away with a victory this season. They will be looking to shake that this week.

If there is one thing you can bank on this season, its the Pittsburgh Steelers playing low-scoring games. They know their strength is their defense, which they have certainly tried to play into.

Best Bet:

Pittsburgh has only eclipsed 47 total points in their matchups once this season. Take the under here.

New York Giants (3-6) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)

Spread: TB (-10.5)

Money Line: NYG (+380) TB (-480)

Over/Under: 50.5 Points

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers just lost to an NFC East team last week, as the Washington Football Team beat them 29-19. Could it be the New York Giants turn to pull off the next upset?

Tampa has lost two games in a row, yet they are favored by over 10 points this week. The Giants have won two of their last three, with the only loss coming by a score of 20-17.

The Giants could certainly keep this one close, especially as Tom Brady-led teams have failed to cover the spread in his last 11 primetime games.

Best Bet:

Take the Giants with the 10.5 point spread.