NFL Betting Preview: Week 10

The NFL season is now over halfway complete, as we enter the double-digits in our 10th week of football action!

Things kicked off last night with a very surprising upset victory for the Miami Dolphins, who beat the much-favored Baltimore Ravens with a 16-point fourth quarter. Lamar Jackson did not have the best game in his return to South Florida and the Dolphins were able to win their third game of the season.

Now looking ahead to the rest of our slate of NFL games, there are plenty of exciting matchups to watch this weekend. There are great inter-division battles set to kick off, like the Kanas City Chiefs vs. the Las Vegas Raiders or the Los Angeles Rams vs. the San Francisco 49ers.

We also could see the return of two superstar quarterbacks that would be going head-to-head with Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers set to square off.

Last week, seven of my 13 best bet picks came back in as winners, marking my sixth winning week since we started this series back in Week 3. For the season, my best bets record is 56-43.

Hopefully we can improve upon that with another strong showing in Week 10.

*All odds and betting lines provided by WynnBet

Atlanta Falcons (4-4) vs. Dallas Cowboys (6-2)

Spread: DAL (-9.5)

Money Line: ATL (+340) DAL (-430)

Over/Under: 54.5 Points

The spread and money line odds on this game are almost identical to what we saw last week with the Dallas Cowboys taking on the Denver Broncos.

Dallas was expected to beat the Broncos by double-digits, yet they somehow lost by two touchdowns. Was that just a one-week aberration or the sign of bad things to come for the previously red-hot Cowboys?

The Cowboys did not score until the fourth quarter that game, scoring a few late touchdowns to make the blowout look a little less lopsided. Dallas should be able to turn things around against the Falcons, who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Then again, the Falcons have won three of their last four games and have scored at least 27 points in four of their last five games. Atlanta can certainly hang if this game turns into a shootout.

Best Bet:

While the Cowboys probably still win this game, expecting them to win by double-digits is a pretty tall task. Take the Falcons with the points.

Cleveland Browns (5-4) vs. New England Patriots (5-4)

Spread: NE (-2)

Money Line: CLE (+105) NE (-125)

Over/Under: 45 Points

The Cleveland Browns are one of the most up-and-down teams in the NFL this season. One week they are only mustering 10 points in a loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers, then they hang 41 points on the Cincinnati Bengals in a blowout.

Meanwhile the New England Patriots seem to be getting better each week, as they have won four of the last five weeks, with the one loss coming in overtime.

If both of these teams were completely healthy, the pick here would probably be to take the Browns. The problem is that they are currently dealing with a COVID outbreak in their running back room that has Kareem Hunt already ruled out and Nick Chubb potentially being made unavailable as well.

Myles Garrett is also nursing a foot injury that could keep him on the sidelines as well.

Best Bet:

If you want to bet on the Browns, hold off until you know whether Garrett and Chubb will be suiting up, as they are really the best two players on the Browns.

Since we don’t have that information now, the best bet is to take the Patriots to cover the two-point spread.

Buffalo Bills (5-3) vs. New York Jets (2-6)

Spread: BUF (-12)

Money Line: BUF (-650) NYJ (+475)

Over/Under: 48 Points

A week ago I would’ve said that this game was an absolute no-brainer. But that is exactly what I said last week when I picked the Bills to cover a huge spread against the Jacksonville Jaguars and they somehow lost the game!

Buffalo only scored six points as Josh Allen had a terrible time facing off against the other Josh Allen, who plays defense for Jacksonville. The Bills victories this year have come against the Dolphins (2x), the Texans, the Washington Football Team and the Kansas City Chiefs, so maybe they aren’t as good as we once thought they were.

Still, how can you be confident betting on the New York Jets?

The Jets have two shocking upsets this season, beating the Titans and the Bengals, but have otherwise looked terrible pretty much every week. Both of those wins came at home, where they are 2-1 this season, so maybe they will shock us all again at the Meadowlands.

Best Bet:

After watching the Bills play a game where only 15 points were scored last week, there is a real temptation to just take the under. Still, I think the Bills are just head and shoulders better than the Jets and have something to prove after last week’s disaster.

Take the Bills to cover the spread and beat the Jets.

New Orleans Saints (5-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (7-2)

Spread: TEN (-3)

Money Line: NO (+130) TEN (-150)

Over/Under: 44.5 Points

This is a matchup of two teams that are in the middle of changing their identities after major injuries.

For the Tennessee Titans, they had to play without Derrick Henry for the first time last week, after he was lost for the season due to a foot injury. The Saints on the other hand lost Jameis Winston to a serious knee injury two weeks ago.

In their first game since the injuries, the Titans pulled off a shocking upset over the Los Angeles Rams, whereas the Saints lost to the Atlanta Falcons. Ryan Tannehill wasn’t even that good in the Titans win, but their defense was absolutely dominant.

At the end of the day, it is hard to envision Saints QB Trevor Siemian beating that same defense after Matthew Stafford struggled so greatly last week.

Best Bet:

Take the Titans to cover the spread.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) vs. Washington Football Team (2-6)

Spread: TB (-10)

Money Line: TB (-400) WS (+350)

Over/Under: 51.5 Points

The Washington Football Team is currently on a four-game losing streak and appear destined for another lost season. They are coming off their bye week and will be playing at home, but it is hard to bet on them to even hang with a team like the Buccaneers.

Another thing that goes against Washington is that Tampa is coming off their bye as well. So with both teams well-rested, it is hard to envision the Buccaneers doing anything but blow out the Football Team on Sunday.

Best Bet:

Bet on Tom Brady and the Bucs to cover that spread and win by double-digits.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) vs. Indianapolis Colts (4-5)

Spread: IND (-10.5)

Money Line: JAX (+390) IND (-490)

Over/Under: 48 Points

The Jacksonville Jaguars were the surprise winners of the weekend last week, beating the heavily-favored Buffalo Bills outright. The Jaguars have won twice in their last three games, but still sport one of the worst records in the NFL.

The Indianapolis Colts have a +32 point differential this season, yet still own a losing record. There is no reason that should still hold true after this weekend, as they should absolutely be able to beat the Jaguars at home. The question is if they can win by 11 points.

One other way to play this one though is to take the under. Jacksonville has only eclipse 48 total points in three of their matchups this season and only once in the past six weeks. The Colts have eclipsed 48 points in all three of their most recent matchups, but could be due for a more low-scoring game.

Best Bet:

Take the under in total points.

Detroit Lions (0-8) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)

Spread: PIT (-8.5)

Money Line: DET (+320) PIT (-400)

Over/Under: 43 Points

Your first reaction when looking at the spread for this game will be to take the Pittsburgh Steelers, because who in their right mind wants to bet on the Detroit Lions?

The Lions are looking like they may once again put together a winless season, as they have dropped each of their first eight matchups this season. Their point differential is -110 and they have lost by at least nine points five times this season. Just based on their history, it would make sense for them to lose by double-digits to the Steelers this weekend.

The problem is that the Steelers haven’t proven to be that good themselves.

Pittsburgh’s winning record is a bit deceiving as they actually have a negative point differential this season at -8. The Steelers also have not won by more than eight points all season.

They have won their last three games by a combined margin of just 10 points. Expecting them to beat the Lions by nine points is tough, especially since Detroit has had two weeks to prepare for this game off their bye week.

Best Bet:

Bet on the Detroit Lions with the points.

Minnesota Vikings (3-5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)

Spread: LAC (-3)

Money Line: MIN (+150) LAC (-170)

Over/Under: 53.5 Points

The Los Angles Chargers and the Minnesota Vikings are two very similar teams, as they have played a lot of close games this year. LA has been fortunate to come out on the winning side of more of those close games, whereas the Vikings have come up short more often.

Still, if you look at point differential, the Vikings are +3 and the Chargers are -2 on the year. Based on their respective track records this season, it feels like this game will come down to a field goal one way or the other.

Best Bet:

Take the three points and bet on the Minnesota Vikings.

Carolina Panthers (4-5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (8-1)

Spread: ARI (-10)

Money Line: CAR (+380) ARI (-480)

Over/Under: 44 Points

The big news with the Carolina Panthers this week is that they have brought their former MVP back into the fold, signing Cam Newton for the remainder of the season.

Considering how bad Sam Darnold has played this season, there is a great chance that Newton will end up being the starting quarterback for the Panthers for the remainder of the season. Who knows if that makes Carolina a better team, because Newton’s best days are probably behind him. He also likely won’t start until next week, as they don’t have enough time to fully integrate him into a new offense.

With P.J. Walker expected to get the start for Carolina, it would be pretty shocking to see the Panthers hang in there with the team that has the best record in the NFL.

One thing you may want to wait on before betting on this game is hearing the injury status of Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray. Murray is nursing an ankle injury and missed last week, but it appears like he will suit up on Sunday.

Best Bet:

Take the Cardinals to cover the 10-point spread at home.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) vs. Denver Broncos (5-4)

Spread: DEN (-2.5)

Money Line: PHI (+125) DEN (-145)

Over/Under: 45 Points

When the Denver Broncos traded Von Miller to the Los Angeles Rams, it felt like they were waving the white flag and giving up on their season. Then they went on to stun the Cowboys in Dallas, winning by two touchdowns.

The Broncos have a +32 point differential on the season and seem to be a lot better than we give them credit for. Teddy Bridgewater is not going to lose too many games for you and their defense continues to be very solid.

Similarly the Philadelphia Eagles are probably a bit better than we give them credit for, as they still have the ability to win any game in the trenches. Philly has a losing record, but they have been in just about every game they have played this year.

Best Bet:

In a game where either team could come out on top, the best bet is take the over in total points as that number is set very low at just 45 points.

Seattle Seahawks (3-5) vs. Green Bay Packers (7-2)

Spread: GB (-3.5)

Money Line: SEA (+155) GB (-175)

Over/Under: 49.5 Points

This is another game that you are going to have to wait to bet on, because Aaron Rodgers playing is going to significantly impact the Green Bay Packers chance to win and cover the spread.

Rodgers is expected to be cleared from COVID protocols on Saturday and would be available to make this start against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. But there is still a slight chance that Rodgers is not cleared and then you are stuck with Jordan Love trying to cover a 3.5-point spread.

Now what is really interesting about this game is that Russell Wilson is also questionable to play Sunday, as he has made a very quick return from his injured middle finger and could be ready to go. There is still a chance though that his finger won’t pass the tests, where he would be sidelined for another week.

Best Bet:

Bottom line, this game is just impossible to pick right now, so stay away until you know which quarterbacks will be playing.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (5-3)

Spread: KC (-3)

Money Line: KC (-145) LV (+125)

Over/Under: 52 Points

Anyone who has been gambling on the NFL this season has probably lost some money on the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs were expected to pick up where they left off the last few years, but they have not been the same team at all this season.

Patrick Mahomes has not been nearly the same dynamic quarterback that once won an MVP and has instead been prone to mistakes that have gotten the Chiefs in a lot of trouble this season. Yet Kansas City has still managed to win their last two games to get their record over .500.

The Las Vegas Raiders are coming off a very dissapointing loss against the New York Giants, where they only scored 16 points and lost by a touchdown. Vegas has been up-and-down all season, as we never really know which team is going to show up on any given Sunday.

Best Bet:

The Kansas City Chiefs offense is due for a breakout performance at some point, could this finally be the week where we see it?

Since it is hard to pick either of these teams to win, just bet the over and root for a lot of touchdowns during Sunday Night Football.

Los Angeles Rams (7-2) vs. San Francisco 49ers (3-5)

Spread: LAR (-4)

Money Line: LAR (-190) SF (+170)

Over/Under: 49.5 Points

If the Los Angeles Rams weren’t loaded with enough star power already, they just added a bit more of it when they signed Odell Beckham Jr.

OBJ may not even suit up on Monday and doesn’t necessarily impact this game much, but it will certainly be exciting to see how the Rams try to work him into the fold. Even without him, the Rams have been one of the best offenses in the NFL in their first season with Matthew Stafford.

They are coming off a shockingly bad performance last week against the Tennessee Titans and will be looking to bounce back in a big way against their division rival San Francisco 49ers.

The Niners have lost five of their last six games, with all but one of those losses coming by at least a touchdown. San Francisco has not proven they can hang with a team like the Rams this season. Even at home, expect the 49ers to get blown out.

Best Bet:

It is really surprising that the Rams are only favored by four points. Take the Rams to cover.