NFL Betting Preview: Week 5
We have another thrilling week of NFL action upon us, which kicks off with a great Thursday Night Football matchup tonight!
Tonight we will watch as Matthew Stafford and the Rams go up against Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks.
The week’s schedule of games only gets better from there, with exciting matchups like the Cleveland Browns vs. the L.A. Chargers or a great rivalry game of the New York Giants vs. the Dallas Cowboys.
The highlight of Week 5 is probably the Sunday Night Football matchup of the Buffalo Bills vs. the Kansas City Chiefs, which will be a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game.
There is certainly a lot of great football to watch and get action on this weekend. Here is your betting preview for Week 5:
*All odds and betting lines provided by WynnBet.
L.A. Rams (3-1) vs. Seattle Seahawks (2-2)
Spread: LAR (-2.5)
Money Line: LAR (-145); SEA (+125)
Over/Under: 54 Points
When it comes to Thursday Night Football, it really doesn’t get any better than this week’s matchup.
The Los Angeles Rams have been one of the most impressive teams in the NFL so far this season, and Russell Wilson is one of the league’s biggest stars. It will be great to see these two NFC West foes square up for the first time in a game that could have serious playoff implications down the road.
Seattle just earned a crucial victory over another NFC West counterpart last week, taking down the San Francisco 49ers on the road. Meanwhile the Rams faltered in their first NFC West matchup, getting the doors blown off against the Arizona Cardinals.
In an NFC West that has four really good teams, this division is going to be one to watch all year long.
Best Bet:
It is no surprise to see the over set at 54 points for this matchup, as two high-powered offenses are set to square off. This year the Rams have hit the over in each of their first four matchups. Will this week be an end to that trend?
I wouldn’t count on it. Take the over, as these teams are certainly capable of putting up four touchdowns apiece.
New York Jets (1-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-3)
Spread: ATL (-3)
Money Line: NYJ (+140); ATL (-160)
Over/Under: 46 Points
One of the worst beats from my picks last week was the New York Jets coming out of nowhere to beat the Tennessee Titans outright. My pick was for the Titans to not only beat the Jets, but cover the seven-point spread. New York ended up winning in overtime.
Zach Wilson putting together the best game of his young career was certainly the main reason for the Jets success last week. The 22-year-old signal caller completed over 60% of his passes for the first time and threw for nearly 300 yards.
To this point, Wilson has still thrown twice as many picks as interceptions, but half of those eight picks came against the Patriots. This week will be a great test for Wilson, as this is clearly the worst defense he has gotten to face all season.
No team has allowed more points this year than the Atlanta Falcons. Two weeks ago they held the Giants to just 14 points, but in every other matchup they have allowed at least 30.
Best Bet:
My general hesitation to ever pick the Jets to win a football game has me eyeing that 46-point over, but the Falcons are just bad enough to bet against at home. Even against the Jets.
I’m taking the Jets on the money line in this one.
Tennessee Titans (2-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)
Spread: TEN (-4.5)
Money Line: TEN (-200); JAX (+175)
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Speaking of bad beats, the Jacksonville Jaguars produced one of the worst one’s last week, as they were actually competitive for the first time this season. Jacksonville ultimately lost 24-21 to the Bengals, but they beat the spread for the first time this year in the process.
Unfortunately for the Jaguars, it is going to be hard to build off that performance as their head coach has been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons. Urban Meyer was caught on video at a bar last week with a girl grinding on him and there have been rumblings about his job security ever since.
With all of the distractions that have been present with their head coach, it is hard to see Jacksonville pulling off a victory on Sunday, even with it being a home game.
Best Bet:
Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans only need to win by five points to cover the spread against a much worse team in the Jaguars. Maybe Jacksonville surprises us for the second week in a row, but I wouldn’t count on it.
Take the Titans to beat Jacksonville and cover the spread.
Green Bay Packers (3-1) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)
Spread: GB (-3.5)
Money Line: GB (-165); CIN (+145)
Over/Under: 51 Points
The Green Bay Packers shocked us all in their season opener this year, getting completely blown out by the New Orleans Saints. Yet ever since that disappointing performance, all Aaron Rodgers has done is win.
In Week 1, Rodgers threw for just 133 yards and had two interceptions with no touchdowns. In the three weeks since, Rodgers has thrown eight touchdown passes without a pick, while averaging over 250 yards per game.
Rodgers has a tough opponent on the other sideline this week however, as Joe Burrow is putting together a great sophomore campaign so far. Burrow has led the Bengals to a 3-1 record, winning a lot of tight games so far this season.
Cincinnati also has a strong defense which has yet to allow more than 24 points in any game this season.
Best Bet:
One thing to consider with this game is that the Bengals had an extra three days to prepare after playing Thursday last week. Even if Cincinnati doesn’t ultimately win, they have a good chance to keep the Packers within a field goal.
Take the points and bet the Bengals with the 3.5 point spread.
Denver Broncos (3-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3)
Spread: DEN (+1)
Money Line: DEN (-105); PIT (-115)
Over/Under: 39.5 Points
At +90, the Buffalo Bills have by far the best point-differential in the NFL this season. That is why it is so stunning to think back to Week 1, when they lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Steelers have looked awful ever since beating Buffalo in Week 1. Ben Roethlisberger looks washed and their team does not have the same defensive identity as in year’s past. And yet with all that said, this matchup is basically a pick’em.
The Denver Broncos’ 3-1 record is a bit deceiving, as they collected wins against the Giants, Jaguars and Jets. Last week when they faced off against Baltimore, the Broncos never stood a chance and the Ravens won 23-7.
Both of these teams are pretty bad, so it is hard to come up with a winner ahead of Sunday’s game.
Best Bet:
It may seem crazy to bet an under that is set at just 39.5 points, but that really could be the play here. Pittsburgh has not eclipsed 17 points since Week 1 and the Broncos aren’t some offensive juggernaut either.
With both teams seeing this as a very winnable game there is a chance they try to limit turnovers and win this game in the mud. Bet the under and hope that low-scoring affair plays out.
Miami Dolphins (1-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)
Spread: TB (-10)
Money Line: MIA (+390); TB (-490)
Over/Under: 48 Points
Last week was all about Tom Brady‘s return to New England to play against his former team on Sunday Night Football. Brady narrowly earned the victory, in large part due to the performance of the Bucs defense, which held the Patriots to just 17 points.
This week, the Miami Dolphins will be traveling up to Tampa to try to win their first game this season since Week 1, when they too beat the Patriots.
Starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has resumed throwing as he works his way back from the broken ribs he suffered back in the season opener. If Tua returns, the Dolphins should have a better chance to pull off the upset, but even with him it would be unlikely.
Best Bet:
That 10-point spread is pretty daunting, as the Buccaneers would have to win by more than a touchdown and a field goal to cover the spread. Still, they are just a better team than Miami and are playing against them at home.
Take the Buccaneers to beat the Dolphins and cover that large spread.
New Orleans Saints (2-2) vs. Washington Football Team (2-2)
Spread: NO (-1.5)
Money Line: NO (-130); WS (+110)
Over/Under: 44 Points
Last week, the New Orleans Saints were stunned at home, as the New York Giants pulled off the massive upset in overtime. The Saints have struggled to find their footing since the retirement of Drew Brees, as they have been very inconsistent this season.
They opened their season with a shocking blowout win over the Green Bay Packers, then had a letdown in Week 2 and were beaten by the Carolina Panthers. New Orleans beat the Patriots on the road in Week 3, only to drop that game to the Giants at home last week.
Which team is going to show up on Sunday to face Washington?
When it comes to their opposition, the Washington Football Team has proven if nothing else that they can put points on the board. Former XFL quarterback Taylor Heinicke has been playing at a very high level as their starter and just hung 34 points on the lowly Falcons for a victory last week.
Best Bet:
The Washington Football Team has been playing some high scoring games over the last three weeks, as they have combined with their opponent to score 59 or more points every game. With that in mind, I would take the over in this one.
Detroit Lions (0-4) vs. Minnesota Vikings (1-3)
Spread: MIN (-8.5)
Money Line: DET (+310); MIN (-380)
Over/Under: 49.5 Points
We can keep this one pretty simple. The Detroit Lions are not good.
The Minnesota Vikings are also better than their 1-3 record would suggest. It’s a big spread, but the Vikings are going to be looking to make a statement at home against a division rival.
Best Bet:
Take the Vikings to cover the 8.5-point spread and beat the Lions.
New England Patriots (1-3) vs. Houston Texans (1-3)
Spread: NE (-9.5)
Money Line: NE (-425); HOU (+335)
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Last week, I was scared off by the 16.5-point spread when it came to betting against the Houston Texans. It was obvious the Buffalo Bills would win, but by three scores?
Instead of picking Buffalo to cover, I told you to bet the under in that game. The over/under was set at 47 points and the Texans ended up giving up 40 points in the game. Yet the under still came through!
Houston could not even manage to kick a field goal against the Bills in that game, as their anemic offense only amassed 108 total yards.
Rookie quarterback Davis Mills was 11-for-21 with four interceptions in that game. He will be starting for Houston again this week, which does not bode well for the Texans.
Best Bet:
If you want to really try to capitalize on the Texans struggles you could pair the under with the Patriots covering the spread. Still, 10 points is a lot for the Pats to cover considering their offense has only eclipsed 20 points once this year.
The best bet in this one is to just take that under.
Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) vs. Carolina Panthers (3-1)
Spread: CAR (-3.5)
Money Line: PHI (+155); CAR (-175)
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
The Carolina Panthers started this season 3-0 for the first time since their 15-1 season back in 2015. That year, Cam Newton won an MVP and led the Panthers to a 14-0 record before they finally lost a game in Week 16. The next game that team lost was the Super Bowl.
This year, the Panthers early season undefeated record could have been more a product of an easy schedule than this being a dominant team. Carolina beat two of the worst teams in the NFL in the Jets and the Texans, while also taking down one of the most inconsistent in the Saints.
Last week ended up being a wake-up call for the Panthers, as they lost to the Dallas Cowboys in a 36-28 shootout. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys punched the Panthers in the month coming into the second half of that game, scoring 20 unanswered points in the third quarter. Now Carolina will have to take on another NFC East team to get their season back on track.
Where the Panthers may not be as good as their 3-1 record suggests, you could say the same thing about the Philadelphia Eagles being 1-3. After a dominant Week 1 win over the Atlanta Falcons, the Eagles have lost three-straight games.
Still, those losses have come at the hands of 49ers, Cowboys and the Chiefs, all of which appear to be good teams at this stage of the season.
Best Bet:
The Eagles defense has been carved up in each of the last two weeks, giving up over 40 points to both the Cowboys and the Chiefs. The Panthers don’t have as much firepower as those teams, but they also might have a better defense.
This should be a very close game. Take the Eagles with the points. This way if it comes down to game-winning field goal, you cash out either way.
Cleveland Browns (3-1) vs. L.A. Chargers (3-1)
Spread: LAC (-1.5)
Money Line: CLE (+105); LAC (-125)
Over/Under: 47 Points
It might be time to start looking at the Los Angeles Chargers as a legitimate contender in the AFC. Justin Herbert certainly looks like one of the NFL’s next great young quarterbacks, as the 23-year-old is putting together a strong sophomore campaign.
Herbert beat Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City two weeks ago, then followed that up with a blowout win over the undefeated Raiders on Monday Night Football. In those two games, Herbert has combined to complete 67% of his passes for over 400 yards and seven touchdowns. He has not thrown a pick since Week 2.
This week, Herbert will be going up against a great defense in the Cleveland Browns, which has allowed just 13 points over the last two weeks. Myles Garrett is one of the biggest game-breaking pass-rushers in the NFL, with six sacks already in the early season.
This just might be the best game to watch during the 4 o’clock state, as two good teams will go head-to-head with something to prove.
Best Bet:
This is an interesting game to predict, because combined these team have only hit a 47-point over three times this season. Cleveland beat the Houston Texans 31-21 in Week 2 and both of these teams got into shootouts against the Chiefs were they combined to eclipse 47 points.
With that said, there is a good chance the under comes in for this game.
At the same time, Herbert can put points on the board in a hurry against any defense and the Browns are certainly capable of keeping pace in a high-scoring game.
The best bet here is to pick a winner. With the spread being just 1.5 points, take the home team Chargers to win and cover.
Chicago Bears (2-2) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (3-1)
Spread: LV (-5)
Money Line: CHI (+195); LV (-230)
Over/Under: 44 Points
While the Chicago Bears have basically had a revolving door at the quarterback position over the last few years, they are consistently one of the better defensive teams in the NFL.
Since taking a beating against the Rams in Week 1, the Bears defense has started to show signs of once again being the foundation for this team. The question is can rookie quarterback Justin Fields put an end to that revolving door of quarterbacks and be a player to build around.
Fields has not looked especially sharp since the preseason, but he has been given the nod as the team’s starter and is coming off his first career victory against the lowly Lions last week.
Meanwhile the Raiders had not lost a game all year until dropping their MNF matchup against the Chargers. Vegas deserves to be the favorite in this game, but will they win by more than five points?
Best Bet:
This feels like a game that could remain close, as long as the Bears rookie quarterback is not a disaster when it comes to turnovers. There is certainly a scenario where Fields throws multiple picks and the Raiders blowout the Bears and cover that five-point spread easily.
There is also another scenario where Derek Carr can’t move the ball against this Bears defense and the game is decided by a late field goal. In either of these scenarios, there should not be a ton of points scored.
The best bet for this game is to take the under.
San Francisco 49ers (2-2) vs. Arizona Cardinals (4-0)
Spread: ARI (-5.5)
Money Line: SF (+205); ARI (-245)
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
After beating the Los Angeles Rams by 17 points last weekend, I am no longer in the business of counting out the Arizona Cardinals.
Kyler Murray is a legit MVP candidate, as he just went on the road against Aaron Donald and hung 37 points on the Rams. The Cardinals have eclipsed 30 points every week this year and are leading the NFL in scoring.
The San Francisco 49ers are capable of beating anyone, but right now the Cardinals simply look like the class of the NFC West with their undefeated record.
Best Bet:
Last week, I picked the Rams to beat the Cardinals because I mistook them for being the best team in that division. This week, the pick is for Arizona to continue to cement their place atop the division.
Take the Cardinals to win this game and cover the spread.
New York Giants (1-3) vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-1)
Spread: DAL (-7)
Money Line: NYG (+260); DAL (-320)
Over/Under: 51.5 Points
One of the best rivalries in the NFL, there is nothing like a matchup between the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas is the heavy-favorite in this game, as their offense has been one of the best in the NFL. Dak Prescott has been unbelievable coming off his ankle injury from last season.
The 28-year-old quarterback is completing 75% of his passes, trailing only Kyler Murray for the best mark in the NFL. Prescott has seven touchdown passes over the last two weeks, without throwing a single interception.
The question for this game is can a Daniel Jones-led Giants hang with this potent Cowboys offensive attack?
Statistically speaking, Jones certainly has that potential, as he has graded out as the NFL’s second-best passer by Pro Football Focus.
Last week, the Giants won their first game of the season behind the first 400-yard passing performance of Jones’ young career. Can he do that again this week?
Best Bet:
Last week, I picked the Giants to hang in with the New Orleans Saints and at least beat the 7.5 point spread. They ended up beating New Orleans straight-up.
While I am not yet bold enough on the Giants to pick them as an upset winner this week, I once again think they will beat the spread and remain within a touchdown of Dallas.
Buffalo Bills (3-1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)
Spread: KC (-3)
Money Line: BUF (+130); KC (-150)
Over/Under: 56.5 Points
If we were picking a must-watch game of the week, it just might be this matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Patrick Mahomes is always must-watch TV, but have him square up against a Bills team that has a great defense and another exciting young quarterback and we got ourselves a game.
This is also a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game, where the Chiefs beat the Bills 38-24 to advance to the Super Bowl. This season though, it is the Bills that have been the far better team.
As I referenced earlier, Buffalo has the best point-differential in NFL at +90. The Bills are also tied for the second-most points scored in the NFL through four weeks at 134. The team they are tied with is the Chiefs.
The real difference between these two teams is that the Chiefs don’t have a good defense, where the Bills do.
Best Bet:
Betting the over is always a fun way to watch a Chiefs game. They are going to get up-and-down the field and their defense might just give up the same kind of action on the other side.
For this game though, I am picking the underdog Bills on the money line.
Indianapolis Colts (1-3) vs. Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
Spread: BAL (-6.5)
Money Line: IND (+260); BAL (-320)
Over/Under: 46 Points
This may not be the sexiest of Monday Night Football matchups, as there is no rivalry between these two teams, but it still has the potential to be a great game.
The Baltimore Ravens have not had the most impressive start to their season, yet they are 3-1.
Baltimore’s best win of the season was Week 2, when they came back to stun the Kansas City Chiefs with 12 unanswered fourth quarter points to win by a point. They then followed that performance up with a letdown against the Lions, in which they only won by two points in a low-scoring 19-17 affair.
When it comes to the Colts, they have been victims of a very tough early season schedule. Indianapolis lost to the Seahawks, Rams and Titans through the first three weeks, but finally got in the win column last week against the Miami Dolphins.
The Colts certainly have enough talent on both sides of the ball to hang with the Ravens, but Baltimore is still the clear favorites to win this one.
Best Bet:
Every time we seem to doubt Lamar Jackson, he comes back and proves why he is one of the most electric players in the NFL. Playing under the bright lights of Monday Night Football, expect a big performance from the former MVP.
The Ravens win this one by a touchdown to cover that spread.