NFL Betting Preview: Week 13
If you are looking for a week of great NFL games you might be in for a rude awakening this week. There are four games this week with a double-digit spread, and only four games with a spread set a three points or less, as we are getting a lot of teams who are completely overmatched on paper.
Still, this is why there is a spread! To make every game exciting to follow on the Red Zone on Sunday.
This will mark my 11th week giving you my “Best Bet” picks for every NFL game and I have admittedly hit a skid the last two weeks after being red-hot to start the season. My record for the season was 63-48 through Week 10 and has since dropped off to 74-65 after two losing weeks.
That just means we are about to turn the corner and have a great week!
*All odds and betting lines provided by WynnBet
Los Angeles Chargers (6-5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)
Spread: CIN (-3)
Money Line: LAC (+140) CIN (-160)
Over/Under: 50 Points
The Cincinnati Bengals have been on a roll lately, winning their last two games in blowout fashion to move within one game of the Baltimore Ravens for first place in the AFC North. The Bengals actually have the best point differential in the division at +83, and have all but put their stunning loss against the New York Jets back in Week 9 behind them.
This week they will be taking on the Chargers, which sets up a matchup of Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, two quarterbacks from the same draft class. Herbert has been more up-and-down this year than Burrow, but he can still go out and win any game. Last week, the Chargers lost by 15 points to the Denver Broncos. Despite being one game over .500, the Chargers point differential for the season in -20.
Best Bet:
The Bengals have been the better team this year and they are playing this game at home. Take Cincinnati to cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons (5-6)
Spread: TB (-11)
Money Line: TB (-550) IND (+425)
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Two weeks ago, the Atlanta Falcons had to relive their demons from Super Bowl LI, as the New England Patriots beat them 25-0 on Thursday Night Football. Now they will have to confront those demons again, with Tom Brady coming into town.
This is the second time the Falcons and Buccaneers have squared off this season, as Tampa blew them out 48-25 back in Week 2. Since then, the Buccaneers have gone on to take a commanding lead in the NFC South, while the Falcons have been hovering around .500 all year.
Best Bet:
That 11-point spread is a lot for Tampa to cover on the road, but considering the fact that they have already beaten this team by 23 points this year, it still feels like the best bet to pick the Bucs. Take Tampa to cover.
Indianapolis Colts (6-6) vs. Houston Texans (2-9)
Spread: IND (-10)
Money Line: IND (-450) HOU (+360)
Over/Under: 46 Points
Judging by the way this season has played out so far, there is no doubt who should win this game. The Colts had won three games in a row prior to losing late to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. While they are only .500, their +57 point differential is more indicative of the team they have been this year.
The Colts have a legit MVP candidate in Jonathan Taylor and Carson Wentz has been a solid quarterback running an offense that is tailored around the special running back.
Meanwhile the Houston Texans have been one of the worst teams in the NFL, with a -128 point differential. When Houston last played the Colts, they lost 31-3. Even though that game took place in Indianapolis and this is going to be in Houston, don’t expect a much different result.
Best Bet:
Colts cover the spread.
Arizona Cardinals (9-2) vs. Chicago Bears (4-7)
Spread: ARI (-7.5)
Money Line: ARI (-340) CHI (+280)
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
The biggest question heading into this game is whether Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are going to play. Right now they are both listed as questionable, but it appears like they are tracking towards a Sunday return. If the Cardinals have those two back, they should have no problem covering the spread against a bad Bears team.
Chicago is coming off a victory, but it is hardly an impressive one. The Bears won 16-14 against the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving in a game that the Lions quite literally gave away late. The only thing that would keep you from betting on the Cardinals is if you think Chicago’s defense will keep this game close enough to stay within one score.
Best Bet:
I hate to keep picking favorites, but don’t see how the Bears would end up winning this one. Take the Cardinals to win and cover that spread.
New York Giants (4-7) vs. Miami Dolphins (5-7)
Spread: MIA (-4)
Money Line: NYG (+170) MIA (-190)
Over/Under: 41 Points
Don’t look now, but the Miami Dolphins could be making a run towards a playoff berth. After starting the year 1-7, the Dolphins have won four-straight and are in prime position to move to .500 very soon based on their schedule. The Dolphins have the New York Giants this week, then the Jets come into town.
The Giants are however coming off a stretch in which they have won three of their last five games, including a 13-7 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles last week. The Giants defense could certainly keep this game close, but Miami should be able to get the victory at home.
One thing to look at with this game is the over/under. The Giants have not eclipsed 40 total points in any of their last five matchups, as they have consistently been playing close low-scoring games. The Dolphins are not exactly world-beaters either, so playing the under is definitely an attractive bet.
Best Bet:
Take the under.
Philadelphia Eagles (5-7) vs. New York Jets (3-8)
Spread: PHI (-6.5)
Money Line: PHI (-270) NYJ (+230)
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Are the Philadelphia Eagles going to have better luck at the Meadowlands this week?
Last week, the Eagles were unable to get anything going offensively, as they ultimately lost on the road to the Giants. Now playing in the same building against the New York Jets, the Eagles need to put that last loss behind them if they want any chance at contending for the playoff this year.
The Jets are meanwhile trying to earn some respect at the end of this season that could carry over into next year. They are already out of the playoff hunt, but just beat the Houston Texans last week.
Best Bet:
The Eagles have had weeks this year where they look like the best team in the NFC East. Then they lose to the Giants. It is hard to be too confident in the Eagles, but expect them to win this one by at least a touchdown.
Bet the Eagles to cover.
Minnesota Vikings (5-6) vs. Detroit Lions (0-10-1)
Spread: MIN (-7)
Money Line: MIN (-290) DET (+245)
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
The Detroit Lions may never win a game this year. They had a golden opportunity to finally put one in the win column on Thanksgiving, before letting a calamity of errors get in their way down the stretch against the Chicago Bears. Between terrible penalties and awful clock management burning timeouts, the Lions looked like they were trying to give away that game late, which inspires little confidence in their ability to keep their game against the Vikings close this week.
One reason to pick the Lions is because they have kept their last three games close, tying the Steelers three weeks ago and then losing by a combine margin of five points over the last two weeks. Still, Minnesota has one of the better offenses in the NFL, which should be able to hang a lot of points on the Lions as they look to get back to .500.
Best Bet:
It’s hard to bet anything on this game other than Minnesota, although the under could be attractive as well considering the low-scoring games the Lions have been playing lately.
Still, the best bet is for the Vikings to cover the seven-point spread.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) vs. Los Angeles Rams (7-4)
Spread: LAR (-13.5)
Money Line: JAX (+525) LAR (-750)
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Not to sound like a broken record, but here we are again with a terrible team taking on a team that should have no problem blowing them out.
The Los Angeles Rams have lost three games in a row, but all to relatively good teams in the Titans, 49ers and the Packers last week. L.A. has done a good job at beating up on bad teams this year, so two touchdowns doesn’t seem like an unfathomable amount of points for them to cover. Of the Jaguars nine losses this year, five of them have come by 14 or more points.
Best Bet:
Bet the Rams to win in blowout fashion and cover the spread.
Washington Football Team (5-6) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (6-5)
Spread: LV (-2.5)
Money Line: WS (+120) LV (-140)
Over/Under: 49 Points
Finally, we get to a game that is not so lopsided when it comes to the spread. The Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Football Team are very similar in that they can go into any matchup with the right game plan and earn a victory, yet they don’t feel like teams that have a legitimate hope at stringing together enough wins down the stretch to make real noise this year.
Washington barely beat the Seattle Seahawks last week, winning by just two points as their defense put together a great performance. Washington has held their opponent at 21 points or lower in each of their last four games. Vegas on the other hand has been giving up a boatload of points over the last few weeks.
The Raiders have allowed 30 or more points in each of the last three weeks. Their defense certainly seems to be getting weaker as the season goes on, which could hurt them this weekend.
Best Bet:
I wish the line was a little more slanted towards the Raiders, so that you could get a field goal betting on Washington. Still, the Raiders are not a team I’d bet on right now. Take the Football Team with the 2.5 point spread.
San Francisco 49ers (6-5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (3-8)
Spread: SF (-3)
Money Line: SF (-165) SEA (+145)
Over/Under: 45 Points
The Seattle Seahawks season has turned into a legitimate dumpster fire. They have lost six of their last seven games, with their one victory coming against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Seattle has only scored over 20 points four times this season, but maybe this is the week Russell Wilson finally gets this offense going.
San Francisco has won three three-straight games and four of their last five. This is a great chance for them to put the Seahawks out of the race for good, while getting closer to Cardinals and Rams in a competitive NFC West. The one issue here is that the 49ers best offensive weapon is out this week in Deebo Samuel. Could his loss be enough for Seattle pulls off the upset?
Best Bet:
When it comes to divisional rivals like the 49ers and the Seahawks, these games are generally pretty close. Seattle actually beat the Niners earlier this season, winning by a touchdown.
This game might come down to a field goal, which is why the best bet it take the points and go with Seattle at home.
Baltimore Ravens (8-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5-1)
Spread: BAL (-3.5)
Money Line: BAL (-200) PIT (+175)
Over/Under: 44 Points
There was once a point this season where we thought the Pittsburgh Steelers had one of the best defenses in the NFL. Then they gave up 41 points in two consecutive weeks, losing their last two games to the Chargers and the Bengals. Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes are fading fast, but they have a chance to be revived with a win over their rival this weekend.
These two teams will meet two times over the final six weeks of the season, with their second matchup coming in the final week. Baltimore has a record this year that is far more impressive than their play would actually indicate. Despite being five games over .500, Baltimore only has a +23 point differential.
The most inconsistent aspect to the Ravens this year is their offense. Baltimore has failed to score more than 16 points in each of the last three weeks, yet they have won two of those games.
Best Bet:
Based on the way Baltimore is playing lately, it is hard to expect them to win this game by more than a field goal. But there is a good chance we see another low-scoring affair.
Take the under.
Denver Broncos (6-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
Spread: KC (-10)
Money Line: DEN (+340) KC (-430)
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Are the Kansas City Chiefs finally back?
They have won four-straight games, with their last three victories coming against teams that were over .500. The Chiefs still don’t seem like they are the juggernaut that we expect them to be, but they have at least solidified their place as a playoff contender.
The interesting thing about this matchup is that these two teams have a remarkably similar point differential through 11 games this season (DEN +36, KC +31). The Broncos are inconsistent, but have shown the ability to beat good teams, or at least hang in there with good teams.
Best Bet:
Denver has only lost by more than 10 points twice this season, while the Chiefs have only won by more than 10 points three times this year.
Take the Broncos with the 10-point spread.
New England Patriots (8-4) vs. Buffalo Bills (7-4)
Spread: BUF (-3)
Money Line: NE (+130) BUF (-150)
Over/Under: 43 Points
Just going based on point differential, this a matchup between the best two teams in the NFL. New England’s +146 point differential puts them slightly ahead of the Buffalo Bills at +144.
The Patriots will play the Bills twice over the final six weeks of the season. With these teams only separated by one game in the win column right now, this division is likely going to come down to these head-to-head matchups.
New England is on a tear right now and could head into their bye next week carrying an incredible amount of momentum. They have won six games in a row, outscoring opponents 211-86 during that span.
Best Bet:
Buffalo might be the home team, but the Patriots are the hotter team right now. The fact that you get three points makes this bet all the more attractive. Take the Patriots with the three points.