NFL Betting Preview: Week 12
Week 12 of the NFL season is already in full swing, as we got to watch three games yesterday for the Thanksgiving holiday.
Last week was the first really bad week of the season for me when it comes to picking games. Only four of the 13 games I picked came back winners, bringing my season record down to 67-57.
Yesterday we began to get things back on track though, as two of my three Thanksgiving Day picks were correct. Hopefully this is the start of another winning week as a whole, as we have 12 more games to lay action on to close out the month of November.
*All odds and betting lines provided by WynnBet
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (6-5)
Spread: TB (-3)
Money Line: TB (-160) IND (+140)
Over/Under: 53 Points
Outside of teams in the AFC East, Tom Brady has racked up more career wins against the Indianapolis Colts than any team in football.
Brady used to have great battles with Peyton Manning, but the rivalry between himself and the Colts took a different shape following Deflategate. This is certainly a game that has been circled on Brady’s calendar for some time.
While betting on a Brady revenge game is always an interesting proposition, it would be ignoring one of the greatest trends in the sport right now. Which is that the Colts are really good.
Indianapolis has a legit MVP candidate in Jonathan Taylor, who is coming off a 185-yard, four TD performance last week. They have won three weeks in a row and are looking like a legitimate playoff contender.
One other thing to account for in this game is home-field advantage. The Bucs are 5-0 at home this season, but just 2-3 on the road. The Colts have won three of their last four home games, with the only loss coming in overtime.
Best Bet:
Betting against Brady is never fun, but I really believe in the Colts rushing attack with Taylor. Especially when I’m getting three points. Take the Colts.
Atlanta Falcons (4-6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)
Spread: ATL (-2)
Money Line: ATL (-135) JAX (+115)
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
In the past two weeks, the Atlanta Falcons have only scored three points. Just a single field goal in EIGHT quarters of football. Yet they are favored in this matchup because the Jaguars are bad too.
Jacksonville has not eclipsed 20 points in over a month, featuring the second-worst offense in the NFL.
Either team can win this game. But similar to the Bears vs. Lions Thanksgiving Day game, don’t expect a high score.
Best Bet:
Take the under.
New York Jets (2-8) vs. Houston Texans (2-8)
Spread: HOU (-2.5)
Money Line: NYJ (+120) HOU (-140)
Over/Under: 45 Points
Without even checking my notes, I am going to venture to say this is the first time I remember seeing the Houston Texans as favorites all year. That is how bad the Jets are.
Houston does a have a better chance to compete on Sunday’s now that veteran signal-caller Tyrod Taylor is back in the starting lineup. The Texans are 2-2 in games that Taylor has started, with one of losses coming in the game he injured his hamstring.
The Texans are likely favored in this game primarily due to being the home team, but they should be able to defend their own turf against a Jets team that has lost five of their last six games.
Best Bet:
Take the Texans to win by a field goal and cover that spread.
Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) vs. New York Giants (3-7)
Spread: PHI (-3)
Money Line: PHI (-175) NYG (+155)
Over/Under: 45 Points
The New York Giants are clearly a team in turmoil right now.
After an embarrassing Monday Night Football loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Giants fired their offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and now turn their play-calling over to Freddie Kitchens.
Kitchens of course was the last disaster of a head coach the Cleveland Browns had employed before Kevin Stefanski.
Michael Strahan is getting his jersey retired this week, so maybe the Giants find a way to rally around that, but it is not likely considering the way they have been playing compared to the way the Philadelphia Eagles have been playing.
The Eagles have rushed for over 200 yards four weeks in a row, with quarterback Jalen Hurts being a big part of that rushing attack. Their offensive line is legit and has led them to win three of their last four games.
After the Dallas Cowboys lost yesterday, the Eagles actually have a legitimate chance to challenge them in the NFC East with a win on Sunday.
Best Bet:
Bet on the Eagles to cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4-1) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)
Spread: CIN (-3.5)
Money Line: PIT (+165) CIN (-185)
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
At this stage of the season, divisional battles can come down to games like this one between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Bengals already beat the Steelers once this year, winning 24-10 on the road back in Week 3. If Cincinnati beats the Steelers again, they will own the tie-breaker and have a 2.5-game lead over Pittsburgh.
The Steelers lost a 41-37 battle against the Chargers last week, but the week prior they tied the Detroit Lions. Comparing their -12 point differential on the season to the Bengals +52 mark, it is clear who the better team is.
Still, this will be the Steelers last push to remain relevant in the AFC North playoff picture this season, so we can’t count them out entirely.
Best Bet:
It might not seem significant, but that extra half a point the Steelers are getting makes this game much harder to pick. In a game that could very well come down to a field goal, a victory by that margin for the Bengals would be a loss, instead of a push if it were a -3 spread.
Still, Cincinnati is the better team and they also have the home-field advantage. Bet on the Bengals to cover the spread.
Tennessee Titans (8-3) vs. New England Patriots (7-4)
Spread: NE (-6.5)
Money Line: TEN (+240) NE (-280)
Over/Under: 44 Points
The New England Patriots may finally be back.
Mac Jones has impressed greatly as a rookie quarterback and has helped lead his team on a five-game winning streak. Despite playing a team with a better record, the Patriots are expected to win this week by a touchdown.
Now that large spread is partially due to what we saw out of the Titans last week, as they failed to beat one of the worst team in football in the Houston Texans. With this game being played in Foxborough, you would think the advantage would be squarely in New England’s favor.
Here are two things to consider though that may push you away from betting on the Patriots. New England is just 2-4 at home this year, but are 5-0 on the road. Also since Mike Vrabel has taken over as the coach of the Titans, he is 3-0 against his former coach, with two wins in the regular season and one in the playoffs.
Best Bet:
The Patriots might win this game, but that is a big spread to cover assuming the Titans show up at their best. Take Tennessee with the points.
Carolina Panthers (5-6) vs. Miami Dolphins (4-7)
Spread: CAR (-1.5)
Money Line: CAR (-125) MIA (+105)
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
The Miami Dolphins have a pretty golden opportunity laying out in front of them, if they can just win this week’s game. Miami plays their next three games at home and has a chance to get back to .500 if they can win all three.
This week presents the toughest test in the Panthers, but then after that, they get to play the two teams coming out of New York, which should be easy pickings for the Dolphins.
Miami’s defense has rounded into form over the past three weeks, holding opponents under 20 points each time to spark this current three-game winning streak.
Meanwhile the Panthers feature a stout defense as well, and are looking to remain in the hunt for a playoff berth in the NFC.
Best Bet:
These two teams are likely going to be looking to win this game behind their defense, which could lead to a very low-scoring affair. Take the under.
Los Angeles Chargers (6-4) vs. Denver Broncos (5-5)
Spread: LAC (-3)
Money Line: LAC (-155) DEN (+135)
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
The Los Angeles Chargers have earned the reputation of being road warriors this season, as they have won three of their four matchups on the road.
Denver has been one of the harder teams to pin down this season. A few weeks ago they looked out of it entirely, losing four-straight games, but have since gone on to win two of their last three.
They play the Chargers twice over the final seven weeks, so their playoff hopes are very much tied to how they handle this matchup. Based on point differential, the Broncos are actually the better team, with a +17 margin being greater than the Chargers’ -5 mark this season.
Best Bet:
With the Chargers set to face the Cincinnati Bengals next week, this feels like your prototypical trap game. Take the Broncos with the three points.
Los Angeles Rams (7-3) vs. Green Bay Packers (8-3)
Spread: LAR (-1)
Money Line: LAR (-120) GB (+100)
Over/Under: 47 Points
The Los Angeles Rams are coming off their most embarrassing loss of the season, dropping their last game against the 49ers by three touchdowns. They have since had their bye week to prepare for this matchup as they look to shake off that bad performance to get their season back on track.
After having a few weeks to prepare, Odell Beckham Jr. should finally be more in the fold offensively, as the Rams hope he can replace the production of injured receiver Robert Woods.
Speaking of injuries, the Packers are really banged up heading into this matchup, with 16 players entering this week with injury designations. Aaron Rodgers is playing through a broken toe and Aaron Jones is still questionable with a knee injury.
The Rams probably win this game, but you can’t count Rodgers out after the way he played last week.
Best Bet:
The Packers played without Jones last week and still scored 31 points in a narrow defeat. That over/under of 47 points feels low, so take the over coming in on this game.
Minnesota Vikings (5-5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (5-5)
Spread: SF (-3)
Money Line: SF (-170) MIN (+150)
Over/Under: 49 Points
These two teams are nearly carbon copies of one another. Their point differentials on the season are very close, as the Vikings are +13 and the 49ers are +24, and they both have an identical 5-5 record. They also have both won two games in a row to get to that .500 record.
Considering the fact that each of these teams are on the outside looking in for their own division races, this matchup is crucial to both of their chances to make the playoffs as NFC Wild Card teams.
Best Bet:
The Vikings have not lost by more than one score all season. In a game that could come down to a field goal, take the team that is being given three points. Bet on the Vikings with the spread.
Cleveland Browns (6-5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
Spread: BAL (-3.5)
Money Line: CLE (+160) BAL (-180)
Over/Under: 47 Points
These teams are about to get very familiar with one another, as they play each other twice in the next three weeks. The Browns actually have their bye next week, so they will play the Ravens two times in a row.
Traditionally the Ravens have owned this matchup, but this season’s team has looked far from formidable. Baltimore is two weeks removed from losing to the Dolphins and they barely beat the lowly Chicago Bears last week.
Cleveland’s last two weeks have been far from impressive as well, as the Browns got smacked around by the Patriots two weeks ago and then only beat the Lions by a field goal last week.
Best Bet:
Baltimore is 4-1 at home this year and is still clinging to first place in the AFC North with the Bengals right on their heels. Expect the Ravens to finally show up in a big way this week. Take Baltimore to cover.
Seattle Seahawks (3-7) vs. Washington Football Team (4-6)
Spread: WFT (-1)
Money Line: SEA (-105) WFT (-115)
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
The Seattle Seahawks have had a disaster of the season, which could change the entire future of this franchise. Will Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson both be back next season?
If this era of Seahawks football is to continue, they are going to have to start to step up sooner rather than later. Meanwhile the Washington Football Team continues to be underrated, yet has pulled out two victories in a row.
Washington is very much in the fringes of the playoff hunt in the NFC and is well coached by Ron Rivera. Still, there is that feeling that Wilson is due for an offensive breakout at some point and this could finally be the week.
Best Bet:
In a game that is nearly a pick’em, I’m laying my money on the team with the better quarterback. Bet on the Seahawks to win on the money line.