AFC Divisional Round picks: Bet on Titans for second straight upset

Verdict: Bet Titans

Texans at Chiefs (Chiefs-9.5)
Sunday, 3:05 p.m.

Historically, the Chiefs are futile in the postseason. Since 1993, they’ve gone 1-7 in January, including last season’s gut-wrenching overtime loss to the Patriots. If Dee Ford had stayed onside in the fourth quarter, Kansas City would have been victorious, and perhaps ended the Patriots dynasty one year earlier.

But the Texans’ playoff track record is also unimpressive. It looked like they were on track to lose again in the Wild Card Round last weekend, before Deshaun Watson came alive in the second half and Houston’s defense forced a decisive fumble late in the third quarter. The Bills could only muster six points in the final two periods.

But Patrick Mahomes is a much tougher opponent than Josh Allen, and is more than capable of taking advantage of the Texans’ subpar secondary. Houston defeated the Chiefs 34-31 when they met in Week 6, but Kansas City was playing without Chris Jones and starting left tackle Eric Fisher — plus Mahomes was playing on a bad ankle.

Even though this game is much later in the season, the Chiefs are in much better condition. Plus, Andy Reid is 18-3 in his career off the bye. KC won last season’s Divisional Round game as well.